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Using an appropriation game setting, we examine individual responses to changes in a groups’ vulnerability to a probabilistic loss (L) of a public good. The probabilistic loss parameter entails losing 10, 50 or 90% of the value of the public good that is maintained through cooperation, where the likelihood of the loss decreases in total group cooperation. By design, the expected marginal net benefits to an individual and the expected harm to others depends endogenously on the individuals’ expectations of group cooperation and exogenously on the magnitude of the loss parameter. We find that individual cooperation is greater when forecasts of total group cooperation are greater and where the magnitude of the probabilistic loss is larger. There is, however, an interesting asymmetry in responses by two subgroups. Subjects who are pessimistic regarding total group cooperation decrease cooperation the higher the magnitude of the probabilistic loss and their decisions are tied systematically to changes in their expectations of other’s cooperation. On the other hand, subjects who are optimistic regarding total group cooperation are found to be more cooperative, but their decisions are not systematically tied to changes in expectations of others’ cooperation.
Established hedgerows of native plants on the borders of crop fields provide a variety of ecosystem service benefits in agricultural landscapes. However, their influence on weed communities is not well understood, and there are concerns that hedgerows could contribute to weed infestations on farms. To address this research gap, we examined the role of established hedgerows of native California plants on weed abundance (weed numbers and cover) and weed species richness in field borders, and in adjacent crops, in large-scale, monocropping systems compared with conventionally managed field borders (i.e., no hedgerows). Across 20 farm sites in California’s Central Valley, hedgerows on orchard crop borders reduced weed numbers by 66%, weed species richness by 59%, and weed cover by 74%. On annual field crop borders, hedgerows reduced weed numbers by 71%, weed species richness by 60%, and weed cover by 70%. In orchards, hedgerows also reduced weed intrusion into the adjacent crop interior, with significantly lower weed cover to the first tree row (area directly underneath the trees), weed species richness to the 10-m tree row, and weed numbers to the 10-m avenue (area between the tree rows). Yearly management practices and associated costs for weed control in established hedgerows were significantly less than for conventionally managed field borders. This study highlights the effectiveness of native hedgerows as a sustainable nature-based solution for reducing weed pressure and management inputs on farms.
The elusive southern river otter (Lontra provocax; huillín in Spanish) is critically endangered in the Argentine portion of Tierra del Fuego, and low social awareness may be one of the major threats to its conservation. Our survey of local residents’ knowledge and valuation of the huillín showed that only 14% recognized photographs of the species, almost half did not know that it is endangered and most erroneously thought it was an introduced species. Greater knowledge about the huillín was related to higher respondent education levels. Younger and more knowledgeable residents valued the species more for ecological and relational reasons; its instrumental value was considered least important. More communication should be targeted at older people and groups not directly interacting with nature via informal education methods, including combining positive messages about the huillín and other native species with ongoing outreach efforts warning about biological invasions. Understanding perceptions and valuations of biodiversity can make conservation efforts more effective and inclusive.
The EAT-Lancet Commission recommends increasing the consumption of nut trees worldwide as part of a sustainable diet. Integrating more nut tree species in urban gardening initiatives could provide members access to locally grown nuts and provide ecosystem services to urban landscapes. This study investigated the reported presence and diversity of nut tree species in urban community gardens, as well as the motivations and challenges for adopting and expanding those trees. Based on an online survey with 111 responding projects from the urban community gardening network in Germany as our case study, we found that nut tree species exist in almost half of all responding projects surveyed, albeit in a few numbers of individual trees and producing low yields. Projects are motivated by the provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services they provide, such as the nutritional value of nuts, the provision of food for animals, and the potential for education of members about agroforestry and nut use. Yet projects are hindered by limited space, local laws and regulations, and the interaction of nut trees with other species in the garden. Although only 50% of projects plan to incorporate more nut tree species in the future, most recognize the importance of nuts as part of a healthy diet. Governmental leadership is necessary to secure long-term contracts for urban gardens, so that more nut trees can be planted, and city residents can exploit the benefits of the ecosystem services they provide.
This perspective positions rewilding as a novel approach to ecosystem restoration, emphasising the restoration of natural processes to create self-willed ecosystems. Central to European rewilding is the de-domestication of cattle and horses to act as functional analogues of the extinct aurochs and wild horses. This de-extinction pathway shifts the focus from the loss of species to the loss of their ecological roles caused by human actions commencing millennia ago. The focus on restoring functional effects provides a strong policy rationale for large herbivore de-domestication, aligning with nature-based solutions to address environmental challenges. This alignment requires a pragmatic approach that prioritises the restoration of ecosystem functions over genetic purity and offers flexibility and scalability in rewilding efforts. I argue that creating a new category of ‘ecosystem engineer’ livestock is more effective than seeking wild status for these animals. As they are released into recovering ecosystems, de-domesticated large herbivores are recreating their ecological roles, ‘life-spheres’ and interactions. These processes open new avenues in both extinction discourse and ecological theory and encourage us to explore how de-extinct species can drive the recovery of European ecosystems.
Nature-based solutions are becoming increasingly recognized as effective tools for addressing various environmental problems. This study presents a novel approach to selecting optimal blue–green infrastructure (BGI) solutions tailored to the unique environmental and climatic challenges of Istanbul, Türkiye. The primary objective is to utilize a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for assisting in the identification of the most effective BGI solutions, considering the city’s distinct environmental conditions and vulnerabilities to climate change. Our methodology integrates comprehensive data collection, including meteorological and land use data, and employs a BBN model to analyze and weigh the complex network of factors influencing BGI suitability. Key findings reveal the model’s capacity to effectively predict BGI applicability across diverse climate scenarios, with quantitative results demonstrating a notable enhancement in decision-making processes for urban sustainability. Quantitative results from our model reveal a significant improvement in decision-making accuracy, with a predictive accuracy rate of 82% in identifying suitable BGI solutions for various urban scenarios. This enhancement is particularly notable in densely populated districts, where our model predicted a 25% greater efficiency in stormwater management and urban heat island mitigation compared to traditional planning methods. The study also acknowledges the limitations, such as data scarcity and the need for further model refinement. The results highlight the model’s potential for application in other complex urban areas, making it a valuable tool for improving urban sustainability and climate change adaptation. This study shows the importance of incorporating detailed meteorological and local climate zones data into urban planning processes and suggests that similar methodologies could be beneficial for addressing environmental challenges in diverse urban settings.
This case study uses the concept of ecosystem services and specifically payments for ecosystem services, alongside five experiences from the Westcountry Rivers Trust (WRT), which celebrates its 30th anniversary in 2024, to demonstrate the need for integrated catchment management (ICM). It highlights the multifaceted benefits that ecosystems provide to human well-being, the challenges faced in managing these often-siloed services and the role of ICM in preserving and enhancing multiple ecosystem services, focusing on the water-related drivers of flooding, drought, water quality and aquatic biodiversity. Through WRT projects this case study highlights practical applications and successes in managing ecosystem services at the catchment level and what considerations are needed for future integration and delivery of multi-benefit solutions. This paper is derived in part from the interviews and workshops undertaken as part of the Atlantic Area Interreg funded Triple C project (EAPA_772/2018), as well as contributions from the Horizon funded, InnWater project (Horizon EUROPE No. 101036683 and UKRI No. 10066637) and the OFWAT-funded, mainstreaming Nature-based Solutions.
Climate change will increase average temperatures and the frequency and intensity of summertime droughts; those shifts will in turn affect forage production in grassland-based livestock farms. Farmers will accordingly likely have to implement adaptation strategies to cope with the effects of climate change. We hypothesized that farmers' resilience strategies would depend on (i) their intention to adapt to climate change, which partly results from previous climate risk exposure, (ii) how they perceive the values and disvalues of multi-species permanent grasslands (PGs), and (iii) that both of the aforementioned factors would vary according to the geographical context of each farm. We carried out 15 semi-structured interviews with dairy cattle farmers in the French Massif Central; the farms were distributed along a range of climatic and topographic conditions. We used (i) the Model of Proactive Private Adaptation to Climate Change to analyze farmers' individual process of adaptation, (ii) the Integrated Nature Futures Framework to analyze farmers' perception of multi-species PGs, and (iii) text analysis to identify the farmers' adaptation strategies. Nine of the farmers felt that they were already adapted to climate change or that they had a plan in place to implement new adaptations in the future. We observed straightforward relationships between these farmers' perception of PGs and their choice of adaptation strategy; those relationships varied, however, with the geographical context of each farm. Farmers in the northern Massif Central and southern uplands highlighted the values of PGs and considered PGs to be central to their adaption strategies. Conversely, farmers in the southern lowlands mostly referred to the disvalues of PGs; they based their adaptation strategies on temporary grasslands and forage crops. Three of the farmers believed that climate change posed a significant risk, but they foresaw little room to maneuver. Despite acknowledging the values of PGs, those individuals did not intend to use PGs to adapt to climate change. The final three farmers did not intend to adapt to climate change; their reasoning stemmed from either a mindset of fatalism or their acknowledged desire to retire soon. Extreme events such as the summertime drought of 2003 and human factors such as intergenerational transmission of farm can accordingly facilitate or inhibit climate change-related adaptation. It is accordingly important to take into account both socio-psychological and environmental factors when analyzing how grassland-based farmers transition to more climate change-resilient systems.
We estimate the economic value of birding, which is an important ecosystem service produced by bird populations in recreation areas. Our research identifies the link between values and species richness as well as the abundance of the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis), which migrates each year through our study area. Sandhill crane stopovers at state and federal wildlife areas can attract many birders. We estimate this nonmarket value using the zonal travel cost method and data from the eBird project on wildlife areas in Indiana. We compare crane counts based on eBird with those from the Indiana Department of Natural Resources (DNR). We find important differences depending on whether we use eBird or DNR counts. On average, birders are willing to pay $28 per trip to sites in the study area and less than $1 per trip to see an additional species, while the value of 1000 more cranes is either about $1 or $10 per trip depending on how abundance is measured.
This study addresses the regulatory impacts on an innovative project seeking to introduce autonomous robots into the potable water network, Pipebots. It does so through the lens of adaptive governance, principally the under-explored area of adaptive governance and formal law. Through this study, suggestions are made to improve the regulatory regime, including a separate authorisation process for novel or complex products, built-in feedback loops to encourage learning and reflection and the need for early engagement by innovators in the regulatory process. Further, the analysis exposes a wider, serious tension: How do we encourage the innovation and flexibility we need to ensure the resilience and sustainability of our systems and at the same time safeguard strict human and environmental protections? The Pipebots project is used to explore the law’s role within adaptive governance, and suggestions to improve water governance are proposed.
This commentary argues that the current academic and societal pursuit of ‘solutions’ to sustainability challenges fails to acknowledge how change normally occurs in complex adaptive systems, that is, socio-economic systems and the Earth system, relevant for societal development. Such systems seldom evolve through isolated changes or ‘solutions’ but, rather, through numerous small adjustments of component parts. It is the interactions between these small adjustments that lead to system change. Thus, we argue the need for altered expectations in relation to, and a new narrative describing, the anticipated role of research in the pursuit of a more sustainable societal development trajectory.
Technical summary
The commentary argues for seeking multiple adjustments rather than seeking ‘solutions’ to our current planetary crises. Based on the belief that many of these adjustments may already lie dormant across academic departments, the University of Copenhagen conducted a series of ‘Transformation Labs’ in 2023 with the purpose of identifying the potential socio-economic and technical adjustments that, in combination, may catalyze societal transformation toward sustainability as well as potential barriers for their societal implementation. Here, we reflect on the learnings from the exercise and argue that both current funding practices and university training should be modified to support this altered narrative. In addition, interactions between research institutions and the beyond-academic world should be strengthened.
Social media summary
For reaching a sustainable trajectory, research needs to focus on multiple adjustments rather than fixed solutions.
Iguaçu National Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, faces threats from proposed legislation aimed at downgrading its protection to allow reopening of the Caminho-do-Colono road, which would fragment the National Park. This study assesses the National Park’s importance in preserving native vegetation and its economic significance via payments for environmental services. We evaluated different scenarios, demonstrating how these resources are vital for certain municipalities. By comparing economic performance before and after the road’s closure, our findings reveal that, contrary to local beliefs, the closure did not negatively impact the local economy. Additionally, these legislative bills are legally infeasible and fail to offer environmental or economic benefits, favouring small interest groups over the collective good. This research highlights that the Caminho-do-Colono road is not a viable approach to municipal development. Instead, maintaining the National Park’s integrity is crucial for both ecological preservation and economic stability in the region. Our analysis underscores the broader implications of environmental conservation efforts and the necessity of rejecting projects that compromise protected areas. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the National Park’s role, emphasizing the need for sustainable development that aligns with environmental and community well-being.
This article examines the challenges and opportunities to integrate diverse sources of evidence in assessments produced by international platforms working at the science–policy interface. Diversity (or pluralism) of sources of literature, both in terms of their geographic origin and disciplinary focus, is essential for assessments to inform decision-making across social–ecological contexts. Using the recently completed ‘Methodological Assessment of the Diverse Values and Valuation of Nature’ of the Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services as a case, we find that significant effort has been dedicated to reviewing diverse literature. We discuss three strategies to expand pluralism in future assessments.
Technical summary
Representing plural views in science–policy platforms is essential to avoid reproducing geographic and epistemic biases that permeate contemporary scientific knowledge production and synthesis. The Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has strived to produce assessments that incorporate information from diverse regions and knowledge systems. We explore the geographic and epistemic pluralism of the literature included in the ‘Methodological Assessment of the Diverse Values and Valuation of Nature’ (VA), and the challenges and opportunities to achieve such knowledge pluralism. We applied a bibliometric analysis to the sources of evidence cited in the VA, and reflected on the assessment development process, in which we were directly involved. Our results highlight the success of different strategies developed by VA experts to engage with diverse sources of literature. Still, most evidence was English-language academic literature produced in Western Europe, Canada, and the United States, echoing the prominence of this literature in scientific publication in environmental disciplines. Reflecting on our experiences, we discuss strategies that could further enhance the geographic and epistemic pluralism in the information reviewed for future environmental assessments produced by IPBES and other international science–policy platforms.
Social media summary
Epistemic and geographic pluralism was partially achieved in IPBES Values Assessment, and can be further enhanced in future assessments.
In the West Asia region, the vulnerability of Ramsar Convention wetlands due to unsustainable utilization driven by water scarcity continues to grow. Here, a global surface water product generated by the European Joint Research Centre was used to assess changes in surface water in 77 wetlands listed under the Ramsar Convention over a 37-year period (1984–2021). By combining this product with a quantitative valuation model, estimates were made of the economic value of the ecosystem services provided by these wetlands, enabling the determination of the economic losses resulting from any reduction in surface water. We show that 20% (7550 km2) of permanent surface waters in Ramsar sites have disappeared or are no longer classified as permanent. Based on this, USD 106 billion of the economic value of wetlands ecosystem services have been lost. Additionally, 33% (12 100 km2) of seasonal surface waters in these wetlands have experienced a decrease in area. Iran and Iraq account for 90% of water losses, primarily in 34 wetlands (30 in Iran and 4 in Iraq). These findings underscore the urgent need for water management policies and conservation strategies in the West Asia region.
There is a relative lack of research, targeted models and tools to manage beaches in estuaries and bays (BEBs). Many estuaries and bays have been highly modified and urbanised, for example port developments and coastal revetments. This paper outlines the complications and opportunities for conserving and managing BEBs in modified estuaries. To do this, we focus on eight diverse case studies from North and South America, Asia, Europe, Africa and Australia combined with the broader global literature. Our key findings are as follows: (1) BEBs are diverse and exist under a great variety of tide and wave conditions that differentiate them from open-coast beaches; (2) BEBs often lack statutory protection and many have already been sacrificed to development; (3) BEBs lack specific management tools and are often managed using tools developed for open-coast beaches; and (4) BEBs have the potential to become important in “nature-based” management solutions. We set the future research agenda for BEBs, which should include broadening research to include greater diversity of BEBs than in the past, standardising monitoring techniques, including the development of global databases using citizen science and developing specific management tools for BEBs. We must recognise BEBs as unique coastal features and develop the required fundamental knowledge and tools to effectively manage them, so they can continue providing their unique ecosystem services.
The real estate business on sandy coasts and coastal dunes has increased dramatically over the last decades because of the growing demands for leisure activities which, consequently, have yielded important economic gains. Such ravaging exploitation results in the replacement of sandy ecosystems with tourism-oriented settlements, infrastructure, and facilities. As the sandy beaches and coastal dunes become deteriorated or eliminated, their protective role is lost, and the hydrometeorological risks to which the increasing human coastal populations are exposed grow, especially in a climate change scenario with increasing storminess. Furthermore, when possible, the expansion of the tourism industry continues searching for new, unspoiled locations, and the cycle begins again. This situation leads to the dilemma of coastal management: should we continue with the over-exploitation of sandy coasts for growing economic benefits? Or should we preserve the coasts for protection against the impact of increasing storms and sea level rise and to benefit biodiversity? Although scientific evidence demonstrates the relevance of protecting the coasts, coastal development plans continue to ignore these findings. What are the key drivers for these trends? We first looked for scientific evidence of the appraisal of the esthetic beauty of the beach and coastal dunes, as highly important drivers of urbanization and coastal environmental change. We then looked for evidence that demonstrated how coastal dunes offer storm protection Finally, we examined if the conservation of beaches and coastal dunes can be compatible with non-intrusive tourism. In summary, through the literature review and our own data, we show how different alternatives may help achieve a more sustainable coastal tourism by combining economic necessities with environmental concerns.
Human societies are changing where and how water flows through the atmosphere. However, these changes in the atmospheric water cycle are not being managed, nor is there any real sense of where these changes might be headed in the future. Thus, we develop a new economic theory of atmospheric water management, and explore this theory using creative story-based scenarios. These scenarios reveal surprising possibilities for the future of atmospheric water management, ranging from a stock market for transpiration to on-demand weather. We discuss these story-based futures in the context of research and policy priorities in the present day.
Technical Summary
Humanity is modifying the atmospheric water cycle, via land use, climate change, air pollution, and weather modification. Historically, atmospheric water was implicitly considered a ‘public good’ since it was neither actively consumed nor controlled. However, given anthropogenic changes, atmospheric water can become a ‘common-pool’ good (consumable) or a ‘club’ good (controllable). Moreover, advancements in weather modification presage water becoming a ‘private’ good, meaning both consumable and controllable. Given the implications, we designed a theoretical framing of atmospheric water as an economic good and used a combination of methods in order to explore possible future scenarios based on human modifications of the atmospheric water cycle. First, a systematic literature search of scholarly abstracts was used in a computational text analysis. Second, the output of the text analysis was matched to different parts of an existing economic goods framework. Then, a group of global water experts were trained and developed story-based scenarios. The resultant scenarios serve as creative investigations of the future of human modification of the atmospheric water cycle. We discuss how the scenarios can enhance anticipatory capacity in the context of both future research frontiers and potential policy pathways including transboundary governance, finance, and resource management.
Social Media Summary
Story-based scenarios reveal novel future pathways for the management of the atmospheric water cycle.
Greenhouse gas emissions and land use change – from deforestation, forest degradation, and agricultural intensification – are contributing to climate change and biodiversity loss. Important land-based strategies such as planting trees or growing bioenergy crops (with carbon capture and storage) are needed to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and to enhance biodiversity.
The integrated Land Ecosystems Atmospheric Processes Study (iLEAPS) is an international knowledge-exchange and capacity-building network, specializing in ecosystems and their role in controlling the exchange of water, energy and chemical compounds between the land surface and the atmosphere. We outline priority directions for land–atmosphere interaction research and its contribution to the sustainable development agenda.
Technical summary
Greenhouse-gas emissions from human activities and land use change (from deforestation, forest degradation, and agricultural intensification) are contributing to climate change and biodiversity loss. Afforestation, reforestation, or growing bioenergy crops (with carbon capture and storage) are important land-based strategies to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and to enhance biodiversity. The effectiveness of these actions depends on terrestrial ecosystems and their role in controlling or moderating the exchange of water, heat, and chemical compounds between the land surface and the atmosphere.
The integrated Land Ecosystems Atmospheric Processes Study (iLEAPS), a global research network of Future Earth, enables the international community to communicate and remain up to date with developments and concepts about terrestrial ecosystems and their role in global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Covering critically important topics such as fire, forestry, wetlands, methane emissions, urban areas, pollution, and climate change, the iLEAPS Global Research Programme sits center stage for some of the most important environmental questions facing humanity. In this paper, we outline the new challenges and opportunities for land–atmosphere interaction research and its role in supporting the broader sustainable development agenda.
Social Media Summary
Future directions for research into land–atmosphere interactions that supports the sustainable development agenda
Evolutionary biology considers how organisms and populations change over multiple generations, and so is naturally focused on issues of sustainability through time. Yet, sustainability science rarely incorporates evolutionary thinking and most scientists and policy makers do not account for how evolutionary processes contribute to sustainability. Understanding the interplay between evolutionary processes and nature's contribution to people is key to sustaining life on Earth.
Technical summary
Evolution, the change in gene frequencies within populations, is a process of genetically based modification by descent, providing the raw material essential for adaptation to environmental change. Therefore, it is crucial that we understand evolutionary processes if we aim for a sustainable planet. We here contribute to this development by describing examples of contemporary, rapid evolutionary changes of concern for sustainability, specifically highlighting the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and how the evolutionary toolbox allowed tracking the origins and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in real time and predicting potential future outbreaks. We also consider how urban development accelerates evolutionary processes such as altered phenotypic and physiological changes and the spread of infectious and zoonotic diseases. We show the importance of evolutionary concepts and techniques for public-health decision making. Many examples of the potential of evolutionary insights contributing to crucial sustainability challenges exist, including infectious and zoonotic diseases, ecosystem and human health, and conservation of natural resources. We thus join recent calls advocating for a stronger collaboration between evolutionary biologists and the sustainability community, increasing interdisciplinarity and the awareness about the knowledge of evolutionary processes for decision making and policies.
Social media summary
Evolution is fundamental to sustaining life on Earth and should be incorporated in sustainability measures and policies.
In this paper, we explore how critically important ecosystems on the land provide evaporation to the atmosphere, which will later fall as precipitation elsewhere. Using a model-based analysis that tracks water flowing through the atmosphere, we find that more than two-thirds of the precipitation over critically important ecosystem areas is supplied by evaporation from other land. Likewise, more than 40% of the evaporation from critically important ecosystems falls as precipitation on other land. We conclude our work by discussing the policy implications for how these critically important ecosystems connect spatially distant wild and working lands via the atmospheric water cycle.
Technical summary
Global ecosystems are interconnected via atmospheric water vapor flows. Land use change can modify evaporation from land, altering atmospheric moisture recycling and potentially leading to significant changes in downwind precipitation and associated ecological impacts. We combine insights on global ecosystem-regulated moisture recycling with an analysis of critical natural assets (CNA, the 30% of global land providing most of nature's contributions to people) to reveal the sources and sinks of atmospheric water cycle regulation. We find that 65% of the precipitation over CNA is supplied by evaporation from other land areas. Likewise, CNA regions supply critical moisture as precipitation to terrestrial natural ecosystems and production systems worldwide, with 44% of CNA evaporation falling on terrestrial surfaces. Specifically, the Congo River basin emerges as a hotspot of overlap between local atmospheric water cycle maintenance and concentration of nature's contributions to people. Our results suggest global priority areas for conservation efforts beyond and in support of CNA, emphasizing the importance of sparsely populated managed forests and rangelands, along with wild forests, for fostering moisture recycling to and within CNA. This work also underlines the manifold benefits associated with achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goal #15, to sustainably manage terrestrial life and conserve biodiversity.
Social media summary
Critically important ecosystems are essential for connecting distant landscapes via the atmospheric water cycle.