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The integration of big data into criminal investigations is advancing significantly. Big data fundamentally involves the utilization of artificial intelligence technologies to analyse vast quantities of electronic information. The inherent features of big data contribute to minimizing subjectivity in investigative procedures and facilitate the evolution of criminal investigation methodologies and incident identification. However, challenges persist regarding the protection of rights and potential biases in data collection, as well as issues of subjectivity and the “black box effect” in data processing, alongside security concerns related to data storage. To address these challenges, it is essential to implement strategies such as enhancing the quality of big data, restricting the transparency of data processing methods and establishing a tiered protection framework for personal information.
The digital age, characterized by the rapid development and ubiquitous nature of data analytics and machine learning algorithms, has ushered in new opportunities and challenges for businesses. As the digital evolution continues to reshape commerce, it has empowered firms with unparalleled access to in-depth consumer data, thereby enhancing the implementation of a variety of personalization strategies. These strategies utilize sophisticated machine learning algorithms capable of attaining personal preferences, which can better tailor products and services to individual consumers. Among these personalization strategies, the practice of personalized pricing, which hinges on leveraging customer-specific data, is coming to the forefront.
The criteria for evaluating research studies often include large sample size. It is assumed that studies with large sample sizes are more meaningful than those that include a fewer number of participants. This chapter explores biases associated with the traditional application of null hypothesis testing. Statisticians now challenge the idea that retention of the null hypothesis signifies that a treatment is not effective. A finding associated with an exact probability value of p = 0.049 is not meaningfully different from one in which p = 0.051. Yet the interpretation of these two studies can be dramatically different, including the likelihood of publication. Large studies are not necessarily more accurate or less biased. In fact, biases in sampling strategy are amplified in studies with large sample sizes. These problems are of increasing concern in the era of big data and the analysis of electronic health records. Studies that are overpowered (because of very large sample sizes) are capable of identifying statistically significant differences that are of no clinical importance.
Despite enormous efforts at healthcare improvement, major challenges remain in achieving optimal outcomes, safety, cost, and value. This Element introduces the concept of learning health systems, which have been proposed as a possible solution. Though many different variants of the concept exist, they share a learning cycle of capturing data from practice, turning it into knowledge, and putting knowledge back into practice. How learning systems are implemented is highly variable. This Element emphasises that they are sociotechnical systems and offers a structured framework to consider their design and operation. It offers a critique of the learning health system approach, recognising that more has been said about the aspiration than perhaps has been delivered. This title is also available as open access on Cambridge Core.
Physical activities are widely implemented for non-pharmacological intervention to alleviate depressive symptoms. However, there is little evidence supporting their genotype-specific effectiveness in reducing the risk of self-harm in patients with depression.
Aims
To assess the associations between physical activity and self-harm behaviour and determine the recommended level of physical activity across the genotypes.
Method
We developed the bidirectional analytical model to investigate the genotype-specific effectiveness on UK Biobank. After the genetic stratification of the depression phenotype cohort using hierarchical clustering, multivariable logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards models were built to investigate the associations between physical activity and the risk of self-harm behaviour.
Results
A total of 28 923 subjects with depression phenotypes were included in the study. In retrospective cohort analysis, the moderate and highly active groups were at lower risk of self-harm behaviour. In the followed prospective cohort analysis, light-intensity physical activity was associated with a lower risk of hospitalisations due to self-harm behaviour in one genetic cluster (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.28 [95% CI, 0.08–0.96]), which was distinguished by three genetic variants: rs1432639, rs4543289 and rs11209948. Compliance with the guideline-level moderate-to-vigorous physical activities was not significantly related to the risk of self-harm behaviour.
Conclusions
A genotype-specific dose of light-intensity physical activity reduces the risk of self-harm by around a fourth in depressive patients.
Analysts often seek to compare representations in high-dimensional space, e.g., embedding vectors of the same word across groups. We show that the distance measures calculated in such cases can exhibit considerable statistical bias, that stems from uncertainty in the estimation of the elements of those vectors. This problem applies to Euclidean distance, cosine similarity, and other similar measures. After illustrating the severity of this problem for text-as-data applications, we provide and validate a bias correction for the squared Euclidean distance. This same correction also substantially reduces bias in ordinary Euclidean distance and cosine similarity estimates, but corrections for these measures are not quite unbiased and are (non-intuitively) bimodal when distances are close to zero. The estimators require obtaining the variance of the latent positions. We (will) implement the estimator in free software, and we offer recommendations for related work.
Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP), particularly in language processing methods, have opened new avenues in semantic data analysis. A promising application of NLP is data harmonization in questionnaire-based cohort studies, where it can be used as an additional method, specifically when only different instruments are available for one construct as well as for the evaluation of potentially new construct-constellations. The present article therefore explores embedding models’ potential to detect opportunities for semantic harmonization.
Methods
Using models like SBERT and OpenAI’s ADA, we developed a prototype application (“Semantic Search Helper”) to facilitate the harmonization process of detecting semantically similar items within extensive health-related datasets. The approach’s feasibility and applicability were evaluated through a use case analysis involving data from four large cohort studies with heterogeneous data obtained with a different set of instruments for common constructs.
Results
With the prototype, we effectively identified potential harmonization pairs, which significantly reduced manual evaluation efforts. Expert ratings of semantic similarity candidates showed high agreement with model-generated pairs, confirming the validity of our approach.
Conclusions
This study demonstrates the potential of embeddings in matching semantic similarity as a promising add-on tool to assist harmonization processes of multiplex data sets and instruments but with similar content, within and across studies.
Exposure to maternal mental illness during foetal development may lead to altered development, resulting in permanent changes in offspring functioning.
Aims
To assess whether there is an association between prenatal maternal psychiatric disorders and offspring behavioural problems in early childhood, using linked health administrative data and the Australian Early Development Census from New South Wales, Australia.
Method
The sample included all mother–child pairs of children who commenced full-time school in 2009 in New South Wales, and met the inclusion criteria (N = 69 165). Univariable logistic regression analysis assessed unadjusted associations between categories of maternal prenatal psychiatric disorders with indicators of offspring behavioural problems. Multivariable logistic regression adjusted the associations of interest for psychiatric categories and a priori selected covariates. Sensitivity analyses included adjusting the final model for primary psychiatric diagnoses and assessing association of interest for effect modification by child's biological gender.
Results
Children exposed in the prenatal period to maternal psychiatric disorders had greater odds of being developmentally vulnerable in their first year of school. Children exposed to maternal anxiety disorders prenatally had the greatest odds for behavioural problems (adjusted odds ratio 1.98; 95% CI 1.43–2.69). A statistically significant interaction was found between child biological gender and prenatal hospital admissions for substance use disorders, for emotional subdomains, aggression and hyperactivity/inattention.
Conclusions
Children exposed to prenatal maternal mental illness had greater odds for behavioural problems, independent of postnatal exposure. Those exposed to prenatal maternal anxiety were at greatest risk, highlighting the need for targeted interventions for, and support of, families with mental illness.
The Concluding Reflections explore democracy’s potential to overcome its contradictions and challenges. The rise of populism, seen as democratic autoimmunity, is examined, where leaders manipulate public sentiment, often through xenophobia and anti-elitism, undermining democratic principles. The tyranny of an exclusory majority is also cautioned against. The potential for democracy’s reimagining in the face of contemporary challenges such as cybernetic culture, migration, and globalization is considered. Ezrahi reflects on the role of creative individuals and cultural forces in shaping political imaginaries. The transformation of the internet and major platforms like Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Twitter from democratizing communication to powerful monopolies is analyzed, as well as the misuse of Big Data, illustrated by the Cambridge Analytica scandal, and the unintended consequences of digital platforms, including the spread of misinformation. The discussion concludes with a reflection on the broader deterioration of democratic epistemology. Ezrahi argues for a shift from a positivistic, naturalistic ontology to an ethical-normative anchorage, proposing to replace the current ontological defense of democracy with a commitment to preserving freedom based on novel axioms, framing politics as alternative productive fictions. Ezrahi proposes to reimagine a democratic epistemology which is anchored in ethics and collective commitment.
Making informed clinical decisions based on individualised outcome predictions is the cornerstone of precision psychiatry. Prediction models currently employed in psychiatry rely on algorithms that map a statistical relationship between clinical features (predictors/risk factors) and subsequent clinical outcomes. They rely on associations that overlook the underlying causal structures within the data, including the presence of latent variables, and the evolution of predictors and outcomes over time. As a result, predictions from sparse associative models from routinely collected data are rarely actionable at an individual level. To be actionable, prediction models should address these shortcomings. We provide a brief overview of a general framework for the rationale for implementing causal and actionable predictions using counterfactual explanations to advance predictive modelling studies, which has translational implications. We have included an extensive glossary of terminology used in this paper and the literature (Supplementary Box 1) and provide a concrete example to demonstrate this conceptually, and a reading list for those interested in this field (Supplementary Box 2).
An efficient compression scheme for modal flow analysis is proposed and validated on data sequences of compressible flow through a linear turbomachinery blade row. The key feature of the compression scheme is a minimal, user-defined distortion of the mutual distance of any snapshot pair in phase space. Through this imposed feature, the model reduction process preserves the temporal dynamics contained in the data sequence, while still decreasing the spatial complexity. The mathematical foundation of the scheme is the fast Johnson–Lindenstrauss transformation (FJLT) which uses randomized projections and a tree-based spectral transform to accomplish the embedding of a high-dimensional data sequence into a lower-dimensional latent space. The compression scheme is coupled to a proper orthogonal decomposition and dynamic mode decomposition analysis of flow through a linear blade row. The application to a complex flow-field sequence demonstrates the efficacy of the scheme, where compression rates of two orders of magnitude are achieved, while incurring very small relative errors in the dominant temporal dynamics. This FJLT technique should be attractive to a wide range of modal analyses of large-scale and multi-physics fluid motion.
The new software package OpenMx 2.0 for structural equation and other statistical modeling is introduced and its features are described. OpenMx is evolving in a modular direction and now allows a mix-and-match computational approach that separates model expectations from fit functions and optimizers. Major backend architectural improvements include a move to swappable open-source optimizers such as the newly written CSOLNP. Entire new methodologies such as item factor analysis and state space modeling have been implemented. New model expectation functions including support for the expression of models in LISREL syntax and a simplified multigroup expectation function are available. Ease-of-use improvements include helper functions to standardize model parameters and compute their Jacobian-based standard errors, access to model components through standard R $ mechanisms, and improved tab completion from within the R Graphical User Interface.
There are ethnic differences, including differences related to indigeneity, in the incidence of first episode psychosis (FEP) and pathways into care, but research on ethnic disparities in outcomes following FEP is limited.
Aims
In this study we examined social and health outcomes following FEP diagnosis for a cohort of Māori (Indigenous people of New Zealand) and non-Māori (non-Indigenous) young people. We have focused on understanding the opportunities for better outcomes for Māori by examining the relative advantage of non-Māori with FEP.
Method
Statistics New Zealand's Integrated Data Infrastructure was accessed to describe mental health and social service interactions and outcomes for a retrospective FEP cohort comprising 918 young Māori and 1275 non-Māori aged 13 to 25 at diagnosis. Logistic regression models were used to examine whether social outcomes including employment, benefit receipt, education and justice involvement in year 5 differed by indigeneity.
Results
Non-Māori young people were more likely than Māori to have positive outcomes in the fifth year after FEP diagnosis, including higher levels of employment and income, and lower rates of benefit receipt and criminal justice system involvement. These patterns were seen across diagnostic groups, and for both those receiving ongoing mental healthcare and those who were not.
Conclusions
Non-Māori experience relative advantage in outcomes 5 years after FEP diagnosis. Indigenous-based social disparities following FEP urgently require a response from the health, education, employment, justice and political systems to avoid perpetuating these inequities, alongside efforts to address the disadvantages faced by all young people with FEP.
As people migrate to digital environments they produce an enormous amount of data, such as images, videos, data from mobile sensors, text, and usage logs. These digital footprints documenting people’s spontaneous behaviors in natural environments are a gold mine for social scientists, offering novel insights; more diversity; and more reliable, replicable, and ecologically valid results.
This last chapter summarizes most of the material in this book in a range of concluding statements. It provides a summary of the lessons learned. These lessons can be viewed as guidelines for research practice.
As the field of migration studies evolves in the digital age, big data analytics emerge as a potential game-changer, promising unprecedented granularity, timeliness, and dynamism in understanding migration patterns. However, the epistemic value added by this data explosion remains an open question. This paper critically appraises the claim, investigating the extent to which big data augments, rather than merely replicates, traditional data insights in migration studies. Through a rigorous literature review of empirical research, complemented by a conceptual analysis, we aim to map out the methodological shifts and intellectual advancements brought forth by big data. The potential scientific impact of this study extends into the heart of the discipline, providing critical illumination on the actual knowledge contribution of big data to migration studies. This, in turn, delivers a clarified roadmap for navigating the intersections of data science, migration research, and policymaking.
This chapter is dedicated to the memory of Sue Atkins, the Grande Dame of lexicography, who passed away in 2021. In a prologue we argue that she must be seen on a par with other visionaries and their visions, such as Paul Dirac in mathematics or Beethoven in music. We review the last half century through the eyes of Sue Atkins. In the process, insights of other luminaries come into the picture, including those of Patrick Hanks, Michael Rundell, Adam Kilgarriff, John Sinclair, and Charles Fillmore. This material serves as background to start thinking out of the box about the future of dictionaries. About fifty oppositions are presented, in which the past is contrasted with the future, divided into five subsections: the dictionary-making process, supporting tools and concepts, the appearance of the dictionary, facts about the dictionary, and the image of the dictionary. Moving from the future of dictionaries to the future of lexicographers, the argument is made that dictionary makers need to join forces with the Big Data companies, a move that, by its nature, brings us to the US and thus Americans, including Gregory Grefenstette, Erin McKean, Laurence Urdang, and Sidney I. Landau. In an epilogue, the presentation’s methodology is defined as being “a fact-based extrapolation of the future” and includes good advice from Steve Jobs.
This is the first of a two-part paper. We formulate a data-driven method for constructing finite-volume discretizations of an arbitrary dynamical system's underlying Liouville/Fokker–Planck equation. A method is employed that allows for flexibility in partitioning state space, generalizes to function spaces, applies to arbitrarily long sequences of time-series data, is robust to noise and quantifies uncertainty with respect to finite sample effects. After applying the method, one is left with Markov states (cell centres) and a random matrix approximation to the generator. When used in tandem, they emulate the statistics of the underlying system. We illustrate the method on the Lorenz equations (a three-dimensional ordinary differential equation) saving a fluid dynamical application for Part 2 (Souza, J. Fluid Mech., vol. 997, 2024, A2).
This is the second part of a two-part paper. We apply the methodology of the first paper (Souza, J. Fluid Mech., vol. 997, 2024, A1) to construct a data-driven finite-volume discretization of the Liouville/Fokker–Planck equation of a high-dimensional dynamical system, i.e. the compressible Euler equations with gravity and rotation evolved on a thin spherical shell. We show that the method recovers a subset of the statistical properties of the underlying system, steady-state distributions of observables and autocorrelations of particular observables, as well as revealing the global Koopman modes of the system. We employ two different strategies for the partitioning of a high-dimensional state space, and explore their consequences.