For about a decade from the late 1990s until the early 2000s, the Chinese state commanded loss-making and other small- and medium-sized enterprises to dismiss tens of millions of older (over age 35), unskilled workers, as it prepared to join the World Trade Organization and the global market. These uncompetitive laborers were left with little or no income or benefits, and many protested. In response, the regime instituted a so-called “social assistance” program, which, this paper shows, did little to address the predicament of these people; the legacy of their layoffs remains to this day.

This report explores key considerations in relation to adopting a dynamic discount rate funding approach and the impacts of doing so in a range of areas, including funding volatility, investment strategy and end game objectives. It considers the advantages and disadvantages of this approach from the perspective of a range of stakeholders and the challenges that need overcoming in order to fully implement and support the approach, for example data challenges and the new skills required in the industry. The report includes sample modelling to highlight the practical issues that arise when adopting this approach. It describes a step-by-step approach for assessing the risks to be considered when determining an appropriate level of assets to provide funding for a sample set of pension scheme cash flows, as summarised in the table below.

It also considers how a dynamic discount rate approach fits within the proposed future funding regulations. Finally, the report puts forward recommendations for the IFoA, Scheme Actuaries and TPR.

Consequences of schemes adopting a dynamic discount rate approach could include very different investment strategies with investment in a wider pool of assets, less use of leveraged Liability Driven Investment, fewer schemes targeting buy-out as their end game strategy and an increase in technical work for actuaries in advising on the optimisation of asset and liability cash flows.

I agree that a good pensions system should embody some form of collective risk pooling and that this would be to the advantage of everyone. There are some difficult issues of adverse selection to be solved, however. Moreover, egalitarian concerns are of crucial importance in most countries and they require to go further than collective risk pooling and to take into account that society is more than a system of self-interested monetary transfers between and within cohorts.

This paper is a contribution to a symposium on Michael Otsuka’s book, How to Pool Risk Across Generations. Following Otsuka, one may distinguish three distinct systems of cooperation within a standard pension arrangement: the retirement system, the longevity risk pool and the investment risk pool. It is important to observe, however, that only the retirement system constitutes a genuine system of intergenerational cooperation, the other two are essentially intragenerational, in that they pool risks among members of a cohort. Otsuka is faulted for being occasionally less than clear on these distinctions.

Michael Otsuka argues that collective pension schemes are forms of social cooperation on equal terms for mutual advantage and thus, matters of social justice. In this way Otsuka wants to understand collectively funded pensions in Rawlsian terms. I argue that not all forms of social cooperation are the same and that the specific kind of social cooperation Rawls has in mind is, in at least three central respects, different from the kind of social cooperation involved in the collective pension schemes Otsuka describes.

This article examines premature withdrawals from pension funds that were initiated as responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. It looks at withdrawal programmes both in emerging market and in advanced economies. Although measures might have been expedient in countries where social protection systems (social assistance and job furlough schemes) are relatively underdeveloped, they could also be regressive. Furthermore, they undermined the concept of pension funds as retirement income resources and, in some cases, they might threaten people’s living standards once they became old. The paper also suggests that such withdrawal programmes have a populist flavour.

A common narrative among insurance actuaries and business economists is that national or regional pension systems can be finetuned, optimized, and improved simply by tinkering with demographic and financial parameters; all within the context of the “right” mathematical model. Indeed, recent papers in the actuarial literature have offered technical fixes around savings rates, retirement ages, decumulation strategies as well as more refined mortality and interest rate models. But alas, not everything in the world of pensions and retirement can be optimized, in particular as it relates to the history, background culture, or religion of the underlying population.

This paper documents a statistically significant relationship between a region’s pension plan “health status” and the fraction of the region’s population identifying as Protestant Christians (PC). We begin the analysis at the national level using a well-known pension quality index and then obtain similar results for the actuarial funded status of U.S. state pension plans.

Overall, this work is within the sphere of recent literature that indicates historical religious beliefs, values, and culture matter for financial economic outcomes; a factor which obviously can’t be optimized within a mathematical Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. In other words, some things in retirement are truly beyond control.

I contribute to the literature on the growth of public spending in Western economies with a novel mechanism that ties it to the marketization process, i.e. the substitution of home with market production. I argue that a key contributor to the expansion of social spending is the replacement of family-based transfers with public pensions and other public transfer programs. I provide empirical support for this hypothesis by establishing the long-run relationship between government size and marketization, alongside other established determinants of government spending, in a panel of Western economies. I then illustrate a potential mechanism behind the results with a theoretical model in which, as a result of the productivity advantage of the market over the home sector, family-based intergenerational transfers decline unexpectedly, providing a rationale for government intervention in the form of public pensions with a poverty relief component.

The central role of economic elites in shaping public policy in Latin America has become increasingly clear. Yet most of the recent literature on the subject focuses on democratic contexts. This paper analyses pension privatisation in Chile as a case study for improving our understanding of business–state interaction in authoritarian contexts. Globally, the 1981 pension reform carried out during the Pinochet dictatorship became an example for pension privatisation elsewhere. Analysis of the policy-making process, based on novel empirical material, shows that from 1973 financial groups accumulated growing power which enabled them to first (a) defeat their opponents within the economic elite, (b) overpower their rivals within the state and, finally, (c) force Pinochet into passing pension privatisation legislation. Our results stress the need to include the study of different actors’ power resources – along with ideological issues and the regime structure – in attempts to understand the outcome of policy processes in authoritarian contexts.

Running off the £2 trillion of UK corporate sector defined benefit liabilities in an efficient and effective fashion is the biggest challenge facing the UK pensions industry. As more and more defined benefit pension schemes start maturing, the trustees running those schemes need to consider what their target end-state will be and the associated journey plan. However, too few trustee boards have well-articulated and robust plans. Determining the target end-state requires a grasp of various disciplines and an ability to work collaboratively with different professional advisers. This paper sets out issues trustees, employers and their advisers can consider when addressing whether their target end state should be low- dependency, buyout or transfer to a superfund. Member outcomes analysis is introduced as a central tool through which to differentiate alternative target end-states. A five-step methodology is set out for deriving an optimal target end-state for a scheme. Also considered are the specific factors impacting stressed schemes, which highlights the importance to trustee boards when considering their Plan B should their employer or scheme ever become stressed. The paper ends with specific recommendations for the actuarial profession and The Pensions Regulator to take forward.

A growing scholarship has documented changes in welfare policy in twenty-first-century Latin America, but no study yet has offered a systematic assessment, using a welfare regime approach, that captures the main trends across countries and over time. For a sample of 17 countries, this study offers a comprehensive tool to measure shifts in social policy regimes, highlighting three dimensions of welfare – inclusion, generosity, and equity – across four policy areas: transfers, health care, education, and family policies. Countries made significant progress in generosity and inclusion, but none improved equity. A cluster analysis based on the three dimensions of welfare offers a new, more precise classification of Latin American countries in welfare regimes in 2002 and 2017. Although the analysis shows minor shifts in country groupings, an increasing reliance on social assistance policies, particularly among the most advanced countries, marks a shift towards what I call compensatory regimes.

In this paper, we provide an analysis of financial literacy in Peru and Uruguay. We find that the knowledge of simple concepts at the basis of financial decision-making is low in both countries. Not only is financial illiteracy widespread, but it is particularly acute among women, rural populations, the less educated, low-income people, the self-employed, the not employed, younger people (in the case of Peru), and older people (in the case of Uruguay). We also find that financial literacy is linked to measures of financial wellbeing: those who are financially literate are more likely to be able to save and plan for retirement in both countries. In addition, we find a relationship between knowledge of specific concepts and key financial behaviors. Lastly, we find a relationship between financial literacy and financial resilience

The replacement rate (RR) is a quintessential property of pension systems. Yet, current measures of the RR are plagued with problems. We argue that the concept of RR should be based on the replacement of lifetime permanent income rather than pre-retirement income, and we show that the self-financeable RR with respect to the permanent income has the advantage of being independent of labor income (wages and density of contributions). We define an RR measure, called CRR, as the country-level RR of the permanent labor income that the working-age population could buy with their mandatory pension deposits if they stay constant over time. Pension deposits refer to national mandatory contributions plus the fraction of non-contributory pensions whose financing could be attributed to the working-age population, all as a percentage of the gross domestic product. The CRR is easy to compute and interpret, is nationally representative, and provides an international ranking because it is independent of pension rules, GDP, intertemporal and intergenerational redistributions, and sustainability. The application of the CRR to most OECD countries using the available data shows a 65% average across them, with several countries achieving a 100% RR, all mostly due to their high mandatory contributions as a percentage of GDP.

Fertility, particularly at its current low level in many developed countries and high level in some less developed countries, is a key factor driving demographic, economic, and societal changes at local, national, and global levels. Population ageing due to low fertility and increasing longevity represents one of the most significant global megatrends and risks. Many countries are already experiencing population decline and rapid growth of their elderly populations, with implications for workforce size, economic development, health and pension schemes, and social security arrangements. Actuaries are well known for their work on mortality and morbidity, but they have rarely considered fertility and its proximate determinants, despite their demographic and economic effects. This paper explores key explanations and outcomes of past and projected future fertility trends, and the implications for actuaries and for political and economic decision-makers.

Many international pension systems have undergone extensive changes over recent decades, associated with a dominant narrative of the need to respond to the pressures of population ageing. This has resulted in an increasing emphasis on curtailing the role of the state and promoting individual responsibility for pension saving. However, there is currently limited research which considers attitudes and expectations surrounding pension developments and, in particular, the role of state pensions. This is despite these factors influencing pension savings behaviour. Existing research suggests that under-saving is most common amongst women (linked to their more fragmented employment histories throughout the lifecourse) and millennials (born in the early 1980s up to the mid- to late 1990s), indicating the importance of better understanding their attitudes and expectations regarding pensions. This article aims to address this knowledge gap by exploring, in the United Kingdom, millennial women's knowledge, attitudes and expectations regarding state pensions, using 45 qualitative interviews and a focus group. The findings demonstrate that millennial women's situation regarding state pensions is characterised by a lack of knowledge, awareness and certainty, which influences their pensions behaviour. It identifies that, in general, pensions were not perceived as a current financial priority, with more immediate priorities taking precedence. Active engagement with pensions and uncertainties throughout the lifecourse, many of which people cannot control, presented a challenge to pension saving. Retirement was often seen as a distinct stage, with participants struggling to visualise their long-term future. The research contributes to the limited international understanding of attitudes towards pension knowledge and expectations, and their links to pension behaviour. It highlights the need for measures to encourage a greater focus on longer-term saving habits, accompanied by a context of collective policy solutions to pension challenges, as opposed to framing pensions in a purely individualised neo-liberal policy framework which adversely impacts on women's pension prospects.

This article evaluates the Australian retirement system using a framework of justice. Justice (alternatively, equity or fairness) is taken as requiring a full consideration of the criteria of needs, equality, liberty and just deserts, as well as matters of efficiency. Inequity occurs when the interests of weaker stakeholders are given inadequate consideration. Applying these criteria suggests that the Australian retirement system intrudes on the liberty of some groups of stakeholders inconsistently and inappropriately in mandating contributions at younger ages particularly, and by the imposition of unnecessarily bureaucratic means tests. It also fails to provide for the incapacitated older aged.

Choice Blindness is an experimental paradigm that examines the interplay between individuals’ preferences, decisions, and expectations by manipulating the relationship between intention and choice. This paper expands upon the existing Choice Blindness framework by investigating the presence of the effect in an economically significant decision context, specifically that of pension choice. In addition, it investigates a number of secondary factors hypothesized to modulate Choice Blindness, including reaction time, risk preference, and decision complexity, as well as analysing the verbal reports of non-detecting participants. The experiment was administered to 100 participants of mixed age and educational attainment. The principal finding was that no more than 37.2% of manipulated trials were detected over all conditions, a result consistent with previous Choice Blindness research. Analysis of secondary factors found that reaction time, financial sophistication and decision complexity were significant predictors of Choice Blindness detection, while content analysis of non-detecting participant responses found that 20% implied significant preference changes and 62% adhered to initial preferences. Implications of the Choice Blindness effect in the context of behavioural economics are discussed, and an agenda for further investigation of the paradigm in this context is outlined.