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Recently Tanaka and Satchell [11] investigated the
limiting properties of local maximizers of the
Gaussian pseudo-likelihood function of a
misspecified moving average model of order one in
case the spectral density of the data process has a
zero at frequency zero. We show that pseudo-maximum
likelihood estimators in the narrower sense, that
is, global maximizers of the Gaussian
pseudo-likelihood function, may exhibit behavior
drastically different from that of the local
maximizers. Some general results on the limiting
behavior of pseudo-maximum likelihood estimators in
potentially misspecified ARMA models are also
presented.
Using generalized functions of random variables and
generalized Taylor series expansions, we provide
quick demonstrations of the asymptotic theory for
the LAD estimator in a regression model setting. The
approach is justified by the smoothing that is
delivered in the limit by the asymptotics, whereby
the generalized functions are forced to appear as
linear functionals wherein they become real valued.
Models with fixed and random regressors, and
autoregressions with infinite variance errors are
studied. Some new analytic results are obtained
including an asymptotic expansion of the
distribution of the LAD estimator.
The exact likelihood function for a prototypal job
search model is analyzed. The optimality condition
implied by the dynamic programming framework is
fully imposed. Using the optimality condition allows
identification of an offer arrival probability
separately from an offer acceptance probability. The
estimation problem is nonstandard. The geometry of
the likelihood function in finite samples is
considered, along with asymptotic properties of the
maximum likelihood estimator.
Impulse response functions from time series models are
standard tools for analyzing the relationship
between economic variables. The asymptotic
distribution of orthogonalized impulse responses is
derived under the assumption that finite order
vector autoregressive (VAR) models are fitted to
time series generated by possibly infinite order
processes. The resulting asymptotic distributions of
forecast error variance decompositions are also
given.
Second-order asymptotic expansion approximations to the
joint distributions of dynamic forecast errors and
of static forecast errors in the stationary Gaussian
pure AR(1) model are derived. The approximation to
the dynamic forecast errors distribution can be
expressed as a multivariate normal distribution with
modified mean vector and covariance matrix, thus
generalizing the results of Phillips [12]. However,
the approximation to the static forecast errors
distribution includes skewness and kurtosis terms.
Thus the class of multivariate normal distributions
does not provide as good approximations (in terms of
error convergence rates) to the distributions of the
static forecast errors as to the distributions of
the dynamic forecast errors. These results cast some
doubt on the appropriateness of model validation
procedures, such as Chow tests, which use the static
forecast errors and implicitly assume that these
have a distribution which is well approximated by a
multivariate normal.
A unified framework is established for the study of the
computation of the distribution function from the
characteristic function. A new approach to the proof
of Gurland's and Gil-Pelaez's univariate inversion
theorem is suggested. A multivariate inversion
theorem is then derived using this technique.
This paper derives discrete models for estimating
systems of both first- and second-order linear
differential equations in which derivatives of the
exogenous variables appear in addition to their
levels.