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9 - Probabilistic Modelling of Primary Loading and Hull Girder Response

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 March 2025

P. A. Caridis
P. A. Caridis
Affiliation:
National Technical University of Athens
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Summary

In this chapter the probabilistic modelling of hull girder primary loading and response are presented. In the first part the probabilistic modelling of the sea environment is described. The nature of the sea surface is described in qualitative terms, following which the short-term description is presented. Deterministic modelling is discussed and statistics descriptors of ocean wave records defined. The concept of the wave spectrum is introduced and spectra for moderate and rough sea states described and differentiated, as well as wave spectra for ship design. Ship response to wave loading is discussed. The importance of linear response is underlined and structural considerations described. The basis of extreme value theory is presented and the Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko theorem is introduced. Extreme as well as combined loads in short-term seas are described. Long-term analysis of sea loads is considered next. Differences with short-term analysis are mentioned and the use of full-scale measurements at sea described. The statistical description of a critical wave height is described using firstly the return period, and probability of occurrence method and secondly the wave height and period approach (scatter diagram). Two methods used to conduct long-term analysis of sea states are described: the long-term cumulative distribution (LTCD) method and the simulation method.

Keywords

probabilistic modellingwave spectrumextreme value theoryscatter diagramshort-term analysislong-term analysislong-term cumulative distribution methodsimulation method
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Chapter
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Global Strength of Ships
Analysis and Design using Mathematical Methods
 , pp. 404 - 471
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2025

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