Stressful life events (SLEs) increase the risk for subsequent major depression (MD) episodes. Most prior studies of SLEs utilized questionnaires or interview-based assessments. We sought to develop and evaluate an environmental risk score (ERS) for MD from multiple classes of SLEs obtained from national Swedish registries.

We assessed, in the entire adult population of Sweden (n = 7,105,712), the occurrence of 52 categories of SLEs derived from registry information for the 6 months prior to January 9, 2010 and the risk for MD registration over the subsequent 6 months. Weights for our ERS were obtained from a random half of our sample and ERS and its relationship to MD risk was evaluated in the second half.

The ERS was robustly related to risk for subsequent MD episodes. Women were more sensitive to the depressogenic effect of the ERS than men. Those with prior episodes of MD had larger absolute increases in MD risk from our ERS than those without previous episodes. Genetic risk for MD was associated with a greater sensitivity to the depressogenic effects of the ERS. A co-sibling control analysis suggested that most, but not all, of the association between ERS and subsequent risk for MD was causal.

Valid measures of SLEs that predispose to risk for MD can be assessed from high-quality registry data. While not all event categories (e.g. interpersonal or romantic difficulties) can be assessed, this method avoids problems with accurate dating and recall bias and can be performed in very large samples.