We explore the theoretical conditions in which natural capital improves explanations of aggregate income growth from factor changes. With positive total factor productivity (TFP) growth, including natural capital better explains growth if natural capital growth rates exceed physical capital growth rates. With negative TFP growth and higher natural capital growth rates, natural capital worsens explanations of growth. Using a comprehensive dataset on natural resource stocks and income shares in GDP, we perform an empirical analysis with 99 countries over three time periods between 2001 and 2015 and find that 41 per cent of country-time periods meet the conditions for improved growth explanation with natural capital. Of these, 59 per cent occur because TFP growth is negative, and physical capital growth exceeds that of natural capital. In these cases, including natural capital simultaneously reduces bias in factor shares and TFP estimates and improves the share of growth explained by changes in factors.

The predictions of the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change are now accepted. Somewhat less attention has been given to the economic, social, and political consequences. The three interact: the former will have social and political effects, which in turn will harm economies and economic well-being. This analysis of poor countries draws on much recent evidence and various projections. Climate damage contributes to internal political instability and conflict. There is a risk that poor countries will be driven down economically, so reducing the capacity of their governments: some will become fragile states. Internal migration is likely to become a central policy issue. However, international migration will also grow. Climate damage will drag countries into both cooperation and conflict with each other. The effects on sending countries, contiguous countries, and destination countries are examined. This scenario presented is predictive but should be taken as a warning.

Offshore wind farms (OWF) are now in operation and increasingly under construction as scalable, sustainable energy sources. In fact OWFs are currently the cheapest form of new energy projects in Europe. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for OWF has fallen drastically due to decades of innovation facilitated by both taxpayer and private sector funding. This emerging industry is experiencing massive worldwide growth with the potential to accelerate the decarbonization of regional and the global economy as well as bring a reliable source of green hydrogen into commercial use, all with minimal disruption to ecosystems and impacts on biodiversity. This paper provides a historical perspective of wind energy harnessing and shows that wind turbines are the oldest, largest and one of the smartest machines. We also highlight the potential of offshore wind energy to provide new solutions to (a) meet clean energy demand for a growing world population, (b) improve energy security of nations through other downstream technologies such as production and storage of dispatchable fuel (such as green hydrogen battery storage) and (c) through supply complementarity improve resilience of nuclear power plants in high-seismic-activity areas. Offshore wind industry can also become a gold standard for future industries, and the paper provides insights into the new green economics and jobs and factories for the future. We show that environment-friendly regulation is driving innovations even further to enhance sustainability of OWF. Examples include material recycling, landfill ban on blade disposal and ecofriendly low-noise offshore construction to protect biodiversity.

The concept of Smart Specialisation (S3) as a foundation of regional development has spread far beyond the European Union. In Australia, S3 appeared first in the Hunter Valley in New South Wales, but was applied in its most developed form in the Gippsland region of Victoria. Despite its growing influence, S3 has come in for criticism. In this article, we look at the way that the Foundational Economy (FE) and the related concept of Deep Place (DP) analysis have been promoted as potential answers to these limitations. I question how far FE and DP should be seen as an extension of or an alternative to S3. I look to more extensive approaches that have been put forward.

This article critically analyses the opportunities for Australia to revitalise its strategically important manufacturing sector in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. It considers Australia’s industry policy options on the basis of both advances in the theory of industrial policy and recent policy proposals in the Australian context. It draws on recent work from The Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work examining the prospects for Australian manufacturing renewal in a post-COVID-19 economy, together with other recent work in political economy, economic geography and labour process theory critically evaluating the Fourth Industrial Revolution (i4.0) and its implications for the Australian economy. The aim of the article is to contribute to and further develop the debate about the future of government intervention in manufacturing and industry policy in Australia. Crucially, the argument links the future development of Australian manufacturing with a focus on renewable energy.

This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown and government fiscal plan, containing ‘green’ elements on the economy and the environment of South Africa. The analysis uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model operationalised using a social accounting matrix coupled with a greenhouse gas balance and emissions data. We find that while the economy is harshly impacted by the pandemic in the short term, the government fiscal package ameliorates and cushions the negative effects on poor households. Importantly, an adaptation of the fiscal package towards a ‘greener’ policy achieves the same economic outcome and reduces unemployment. Carbon dioxide emissions decrease in the short run due to economic slowdown. This improvement persists until 2030. These results can be used as decision support for policy makers on how to orient the post COVID-19 policies to be pro-poor and pro-environment, and thus, ‘build back better and fairer’.

From any state of economic and environmental assets, the maximin value defines the highest level of utility that can be sustained forever. Along any development path, the maximin value evolves over time according to investment decisions. If the current level of utility is lower than this value, there is room for growth of both the utility level and the maximin value. For any resource allocation mechanism (ram) and economic dynamics, growth is limited by the long-run level of the maximin value, which is an endogenous dynamic sustainability constraint. If utility reaches this limit, sustainability imposes growth to stop, and the adoption of maximin decisions instead of the current ram. We illustrate this pattern in two canonical models, the simple fishery and a two-sector economy with a nonrenewable resource. We discuss what our results imply for the assessment of sustainability in the short and the long run in non-optimal economies.

The importance of forest conservation in the fight against emissions from deforestation and forest degradation has led to reexamination of the deforestation and economic development relationship. For this purpose, we use the recent method of long-term growth rate developed by Stern et al. (2017) on 85 tropical developing countries over the period 1990–2010. Results show that the EKC is not significant. However, we find a beta convergence across developing countries in terms of deforestation per capita. In other words, these countries converge in terms of policies that prevent deforestation and forest degradation. This implies that, just as with growth effects, beta convergence effects are also important in explaining changes in forest cover in tropical developing countries. The convergence effect in forest cover change may be consistent with the forest transition hypothesis.

Reliance of modern economic activities on the use of energy, most of which still comes from non-renewable sources, provokes concerns regarding the most efficient utilization of energy inputs in production. While most theory expects directed technological change to be biased towards the non-renewable input, there is rare macro-level evidence that technological change is actually biased towards energy rather than other main inputs. To fill this gap, we apply stochastic frontier analysis to country data regarding output produced with capital, labor and energy, and estimate a set of indicators for technological change. Findings show that technological change is biased the most towards energy in general. In particular, although different groups of countries exhibit various patterns, there is strong evidence that technological change favors energy more than labor. This is in line with the theoretical expectation that technological change ought to be biased towards the non-renewable input rather than the renewable ones.

In an overlapping generations model with multiple steady states, we analyse the impact of endogenous environmental policies on the relevance of history and expectations for the equilibrium selection. In a polluting regime, environmental preferences cause an increasing energy tax which raises the risk that the economy transitions to the inferior equilibrium under pessimistic expectations. However, higher environmental preferences imply an earlier switch to the clean energy regime. Then, the conflict between production and environmental preferences is resolved and the prospects of selecting the superior equilibrium improve, since positive expectations become more relevant. In an empirical analysis we find that people with environmental preferences tend to have more optimistic expectations about economic development. Using these findings to analyse the steady-state dynamics implies that agents with environmental preferences support higher energy taxes and switch to clean production more quickly. Due to their optimism, the likelihood of reaching the superior stable steady state increases.

We analyze the impact of earthquakes on nighttime lights at a sub-national level, i.e., on grids of different size. We argue that existing studies on the impact of natural disasters on economic development have several important limitations, both at the level of the outcome variable as well as at the level of the independent variable, e.g., the timing of an event and the measuring of its intensity. We aim to overcome these limitations by using geophysical event data on earthquakes together with satellite nighttime lights. Using panel fixed effects regressions covering the entire world for the period 1992–2013, we find that earthquakes reduce both light growth rates and light levels significantly. The effects persist for approximately 5 years, but we find no long-run effects. Effects are stronger the smaller the area of a unit of observation. National institutions and economic conditions are relevant moderating factors.

Based on an unexplored data set on disasters in Brazil, the current study shows that the direct damage of natural disasters reduces the GDP growth rate of municipal economies in Ceará state, Northeast Brazil. The agriculture and service sectors are the most affected economic sectors, while the industrial sector remains unaffected by environmental shocks. Economic growth is particularly responsive to the occurrence of large natural disasters that lead municipalities to declare a state of emergency or public calamity. Regarding public policies, water supply infrastructure increases the resilience of the output growth of services to droughts, whereas disaster microinsurance helps to mitigate the effects of droughts and floods on the economic growth of agriculture in a Brazilian state where family farming is predominant and highly vulnerable to natural disasters.

Pollution from fossil fuel use is a global problem. Studies have shown that a worsening of environmental quality has adverse effects on worker productivity and health. In this study, there is an inexhaustible natural resource that deteriorates environmental quality and affects productivity. There also exists a perfect substitute clean backstop, which is initially too costly to operate and whose costs can be reduced through investments in knowledge. Depending on the endowment of environmental quality, the optimal solution shows that the planner should only use the resource or only the backstop until a constant steady state is reached in which the polluting resource and backstop are used in fixed proportions. We show that investments in alternative technologies from the very beginning can help an economy make the eventual switch to clean energy sources, thereby attaining better environmental quality.