The behaviour of mountain glaciers on decadal time scales is a useful indicator for assessing climate change. Although less monitored and studied than the ice sheet, local glaciers and ice caps along the coast of Greenland are substantial contributors to meltwater runoff and sea level rise. This study analyses the cumulative area, ice mass and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) change that occurred on 4100 glaciers and ice caps in West Greenland from 1985 to approximately 2020, using remotely sensed data and including glaciers smaller than 1 km2 in the calculations. The glaciers involved in the study decreased in area by 1774 ± 229 km2 which corresponds to almost −15%. Their surface elevation decreased on average by 20.6 ± 3.9 m, corresponding to a rate of −0.5 ± 0.1 m w.e. a−1. The ELA shows a median regional rise of 150 m with marked local variability and higher median rise in the northern part of the study area. Strong regional gradients in ELA of individual glaciers are found, both towards the ice sheet and in areas where local orography affects precipitation. The observed high spatial variability of changes suggests that more monitoring on sub-regional level is needed.

Jostedalsbreen in western Norway is the mainland Europe's largest ice cap and a complex system of more than 80 glaciers. While observational records indicate a significant sensitivity to climate fluctuations, knowledge about ice-cap wide spatiotemporal mass changes and their drivers remain sparse. Here, we quantify the surface mass balance (SMB) of Jostedalsbreen from 1960 to 2020 using a temperature-index model within a Bayesian framework. We assimilate seasonal glaciological SMB to constrain accumulation and ablation, and geodetic mass balance to adjust model parameters for each glacier individually. Overall, we find that Jostedalsbreen has experienced a small mass loss of −0.07 m w.e. a−1 (−0.21 to +0.08 m w.e. a−1), but with substantial spatiotemporal variability. Our results suggest that winter SMB variations were the main control on annual SMB between 1960 and 2000, while increasingly negative summer SMB is responsible for substantial mass losses after 2000. Spatial variations in SMB between glaciers or regions of the ice cap are likely associated with local topography and its effect on orographic precipitation. We advocate for models to leverage the growing availability of observational resources to improve SMB predictions. We demonstrate an approach that incorporates complementary datasets, while addressing their inherent uncertainties, to constrain models and provide robust estimates of spatiotemporal SMB and associated uncertainties.

Recent advances in remote sensing have produced global glacier surface elevation change data. Parsing these elevation change signals into contributions from the climate (i.e. climatic mass balance) and glacier dynamics (i.e. flux divergence) is critical to enhance our process-based understanding of glacier change. In this study, we evaluate three approaches for direct, continuous measurements of the climatic mass balance, flux divergence and elevation change at a site on Gulkana Glacier in Alaska using low-cost global navigation satellite system (GNSS) sensors, GNSS interferometric reflectometry (GNSS-IR), banded ablation stakes with time-lapse cameras and combinations thereof. Cumulative climatic mass balance over the season was 4.85 m and the three approaches were within 0.08 m through early July before the snowpack melted, and within 0.28 m through mid-August. The flux divergence increased from 0.52 ± 0.03 cm d−1 before June 3 to about 0.73 cm d−1 after June 27. We demonstrate a single GNSS system fixed atop an ablation stake can measure contemporaneous climatic mass balance, flux divergence and elevation change based on the antenna's position and GNSS-IR techniques. The ability of these systems to measure glacier mass balance and flux divergence offers unique opportunities for year-round observations on mountain glaciers in the future.

Climate change is causing Himalayan glaciers to shrink rapidly and natural hazards to increase, while downstream exposure is growing. Glacier shrinkage promotes the formation of glacial lakes, which can suddenly drain and produce glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Bhutan is one of the most vulnerable countries globally to these hazards. Here we use remotely sensed imagery to quantify changes in supraglacial water storage on Tshojo Glacier, Bhutan, where previous supraglacial pond drainage events have necessitated downstream evacuation. Results showed a doubling of both total ponded area (104 529 m2 to 213 943 m2) and its std dev. (64 808 m2 to 158 550 m2) between the periods 1987–2003 and 2007–2020, which was predominantly driven by increases in the areas of the biggest ponds. These ponds drained regularly and have occupied the same location since at least 1967. Tshojo Glacier has remained in the first stage of proglacial lake development for 53 years, which we attribute to its moderate slopes and ice velocities. Numerical modelling shows that pond outbursts can reach between ~6 and 47 km downstream, impacting the remote settlement of Lunana. Our results highlight the need to better quantify variability in supraglacial water storage and its potential to generate GLOFs, as climate warms.

Taku Glacier recently began retreating for the first time since the late 19th century but limited observations of its bed leaves uncertainties on how this retreat will proceed. In this study, we use ground-based gravity measurements to improve the extent of bed-elevation estimates on the Taku by modelling the glacier in 3D. We find the across-flow geometry of the middle to upper reach of the Taku and the Matthes branch has a step-like feature near the edge and a wide, flat bottom. We constrain the ice thickness along flow within uncertainty limits and provide a range of expected values. Along the centre line of our model, we find a maximum ice thickness of 1556 ± 143 m and the deepest bed at 445 ± 166 m below sea level. The along-flow results also delineate two bedrock bumps, which could help stabilise the retreat of the Taku when its terminus is submerged in water. We model the bed to be below sea level until at least 35 km upstream of the terminus where the Matthes branch joins the main branch, improving constraints on how far upstream the Taku would be vulnerable to marine retreat.

Plateau icefields are large stores of fresh water, preconditioned to enhanced mass loss due to their gently sloping accumulation areas. Accurate modelling of their mass balance is therefore crucial for sea-level rise projections. Here, we use the COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass-balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) to simulate historical and future mass balance of the Juneau Icefield, Alaska – a high elevation (>1200 m) plateau icefield. We force the model with dynamically downscaled climate simulations, for both past and future (RCP 8.5) conditions. The icefield's mass balance decreased from a mean of −0.22 ± 0.38 m w.e. a−1 (1981–2019) to −1.52 ± 0.27 m w.e. a−1 (2031–2060), with many glaciers shifting from positive to negative mass balances at the start of the 21st century. This mass loss is attributed to projected rising air temperatures and reduced snowfall, causing the equilibrium line altitude to rise and triggering albedo and melt-elevation feedbacks. These processes exacerbate melt, potentially leading to increased glacier disconnections at icefalls.

The sensitivity of glacier mass balance to temperature and precipitation variations is crucial for informing models that simulate glaciers’ response to climate change. In this study, we simulate the glacier-wide mass balance of Mera Glacier with a surface energy-balance model, driven by in situ meteorological data, from 2016 to 2020. The analysis of the share of the energy fluxes of the glacier shows the radiative fluxes account for almost all the energy available during the melt season (May–October). However, turbulent fluxes are significant outside the monsoon (June–September). On an annual scale, melt is the dominant mass flux at all elevations, but 44% of the melt refreezes across the glacier. By reshuffling the available observations, we create 180 synthetic series of hourly meteorological forcings to force the model over a wide range of plausible climate conditions. A +1 (−1)°C change in temperature results in a −0.75 ± 0.17 (+0.93 ± 0.18) m w.e. change in glacier-wide mass balance and a +20 (−20)% change in precipitation results in a +0.52 ± 0.10 (−0.60 ± 0.11) m w.e. change. Our study highlights the need for physical-based approaches to produce consistent forcing datasets, and calls for more meteorological and glaciological measurements in High Mountain Asia.

Knowledge of snow and firn-density change is needed to use elevation-change measurements to estimate glacier mass change. Additionally, firn-density evolution on glaciers is closely connected to meltwater percolation, refreezing and runoff, which are key processes for glacier mass balance and hydrology. Since 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey Benchmark Glacier Project has recovered firn cores from a site on Wolverine Glacier in Alaska's Kenai Mountains. We use annual horizons in repeat cores to track firn densification and meltwater retention over seasonal and interannual timescales, and we use density measurements to quantify how the firn air content (FAC) changes through time. The results suggest the firn is densifying due primarily to compaction rather than refreezing. Liquid-water retention in the firn is transient, likely due to gravity-fed drainage and irreducible-water-content decreases that accompany decreasing porosity. We show that the uncertainty (±60 kg m−3) in the commonly used volume-to-mass conversion factor of 850 kg m−3 is an underestimation when glacier-wide FAC variability exceeds 12% of the glacier-averaged height change. Our results demonstrate how direct measurements of firn properties on mountain glaciers can be used to better quantify the uncertainty in geodetic volume-to-mass conversions.

Rock glaciers support alpine biodiversity and may respond more slowly to warming than snow or glaciers. While responses of snow and glaciers to climate change are relatively well understood, a robust assessment of rock glacier environmental niche, future distributions of rock glaciers and potential for development of rock glaciers from current glaciers is lacking. Using process-relevant, high-resolution environmental descriptors, we develop a species distribution model of the topographic, geologic and hydroclimatic niche of rock glaciers that provides novel estimates of potential rock glacier distributions for different climates. We identify mean annual air temperature and headwall area as the dominant controls on rock glacier spatial distributions, with rock glaciers more likely to be found in areas with mean annual temperatures close to −5°C, little rain, northern aspects and broad headwalls. While rock glacier climate equilibration may take hundreds of years, we find that equilibration to present climate will result in a 50% reduction in rock glacier habitat and equilibration to late 21st-century climate under a high-end warming scenario will result in a 99% reduction in rock glacier habitat across the western USA. Under future conditions, we find limited potential for glacier to rock glacier transformation (3% of glacierized area), concentrated in cold, high elevation, moderate precipitation areas.

The time-evolution of glacier basal motion remains poorly constrained, despite its importance in understanding the response of glaciers to climate warming. Athabasca Glacier provides an ideal site for observing changes in basal motion over long timescales. Studies from the 1960s provide an in situ baseline dataset constraining ice deformation and basal motion. We use two complementary numerical flow models to investigate changes along a well-studied transverse profile and throughout a larger study area. A cross-sectional flow model allows us to calculate transverse englacial velocity fields to simulate modern and historical conditions. We subsequently use a 3-D numerical ice flow model, Icepack, to estimate changes in basal friction by inverting known surface velocities. Our results reproduce observed velocities well using standard values for flow parameters. They show that basal motion declined significantly (30–40%) and this constitutes the majority (50–80%) of the observed decrease in surface velocities. At the same time, basal resistive stress has remained nearly constant and now balances a much larger fraction of the driving stress. The decline in basal motion over multiple decades of climate warming could serve as a stabilizing feedback mechanism, slowing ice transport to lower elevations, and therefore moderating future mass loss rates.

Runoff from heavily glacierised catchments, its seasonality and the contribution from different storage units are highly relevant for assessing the seasonal and long-term water supply and flood prediction. Modelling studies on runoff from such basins often use simulated meteorological input (e.g. downscaling products) based on remote observations. We investigate the contribution of snow, firn and ice to runoff in the Vernagtferner basin (Ötztal Alps) from 2020 to 2022, using a physical modelling chain driven by a local observation network. We use the SNOWPACK model to simulate snow/ice development at observation sites and the Alpine3D model to calculate accumulation and melt at the catchment scale. Basin discharge is estimated using a gridded version of the HBV-ETH model. This approach largely reproduces observed glacier mass balances, while modelled and measured basin discharge are in good agreement. Snowmelt dominates discharge in the early melt season, while ice melt becomes increasingly important during summer. This is in strong contrast to the near-equilibrium mass balances in the 1980s, when ice melt played a minor role for annual discharge. The strong reduction of the accumulation area leads to a fundamental change from a snowmelt regime to an ice melt regime, which is especially pronounced in 2022.

Bulk aerodynamic methods have been shown to perform poorly in computing turbulent heat fluxes at glacier surfaces during shallow katabatic winds. Katabatic surface layers have different wind shear and flux profiles to the surface layers for which the bulk methods were developed, potentially invalidating their use in these conditions. In addition, eddy covariance-derived turbulent heat fluxes are unlikely to be representative of surface conditions when eddy covariance data are collected close to the wind speed maximum (WSM). Here we utilize two months of eddy covariance and meteorological data measured at three different heights (1 m, 2 m, and 3 m) at Kaskawulsh Glacier in the Yukon, Canada, to re-examine the performance of bulk methods relative to eddy covariance-derived fluxes under different near-surface flow regimes. We propose a new set of processing methods for one-level eddy covariance data to ensure the validity of calculated fluxes during highly variable flows and low-level wind speed maxima, which leads to improved agreement between eddy covariance-derived and modelled fluxes across all flow regimes, with the best agreement (correlation >0.9) 1 m above the surface. Contrary to previous studies, these results show that adequately processed eddy covariance data collected at or above the WSM can provide valid estimates of surface heat fluxes.

We present a quantitative ground-penetrating radar (GPR) analysis of the Lower Calderone Glacieret to highlight the recent evolution of one of the southernmost glacial systems in Europe. The Upper and Lower Calderone Glacierets are the last two perennial ice bodies in the Apennine Mountains (Italy), and their continuous monitoring is important for glaciology, hydrology and climate science. We applied a proprietary auto-picking algorithm to track reflections accurately and objectively within three pseudo-3-D GPR data sets that were acquired over the Lower Glacieret in different years. After the time-to-depth conversion, the basal reflections were projected onto the normal versors of a 3-D topographic model of the survey area, at the different GPR trace positions. We then applied an Adjusted Inverse-Distance Weighted Spatial Interpolation method to extrapolate the ice-bedrock interface within the areas not directly covered by the GPR profiles and compare it with the topographic surface to recover the glacieret volume. In this paper, we critically examine the accuracy of the reconstructed models, including possible issues related to the challenging survey areas, such as local artifacts in the interpolated interface caused by irregular GPR coverage. We further discuss the various advantages of the implemented procedure with respect to more traditional glacier monitoring techniques.

The number of glacial lakes has grown globally concurrently with the retreat of glaciers in the last few decades, increasing the risk of potentially hazardous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and posing a threat to downstream communities. Norway has several known ice-dammed lakes that produce repeated GLOFs but as we show here, the existing GLOF database is incomplete and needs to be improved through continuous monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes. This study examines the case of an ice cap in central Norway hosting at least four drainage-prone lakes. We reconstruct the sequence of lake drainage events through a combination of remote sensing, ground-truthing and citizen science while scrutinising the applicability of the PlanetScope imagery vs Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 OLI products. As opposed to the Landsat imagery that often fails to resolve even the largest glacial lakes of Tystigbreen, both PlanetScope and Sentinel-2 are helpful in identifying previously unrecognised glacial lakes and undocumented drainage events. Our analysis suggests that a fusion of the two satellite products may be beneficial for automated tracking of glacial lake changes. We also demonstrate that local knowledge and systematic involvement of citizens in data collection have a potential to enrich GLOF databases.

Tropical Andean glaciers are highly sensitive to climate change and are impacted by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, glaciological data are scarce, meaning that there are substantial knowledge gaps in the response of Andean glaciers to future anthropogenic and ENSO forcing and these are crucial to address, as glaciers represent a key water source for downstream populations and ecosystems. Here we integrated data from glaciological field studies, remote sensing, statistical analysis and glacier modelling to analyse the response of two Andean glaciers (Zongo and Shallap) to ENSO and their potential sensitivity to a range of climate forcing scenarios. Both glaciers retreated and experienced increasingly negative mass balance between the 1990s and the 2010s and responded strongly and rapidly to contemporary ENSO forcing, although this relationship evolved over time. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that Shallap and Zongo are highly sensitive to ENSO forcing scenarios and the combination of ENSO and climate warming can cause rapid ice loss under the most extreme scenarios. Results also demonstrate the strong sensitivity of both glaciers to changes in the equilibrium line altitude, whereby rapid ice loss occurred when melt extended into present-day accumulation areas.

Melting and calving of glaciers and ice caps in Antarctica and Greenland could potentially contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Updates to existing outlines that provide critical glacier baseline information in both regions could help in the analysis of particular changes in glacier parameters such as area and volume from time-series inventories. Here we synthesize previously established techniques and apply new multi-source datasets to update glacier outlines in selected test areas of Antarctica and Greenland, as well as to reduce uncertainties and errors during the mapping process. The workflow includes mapping glacier boundaries, subdividing glaciers by watersheds and assigning glacier attributes. Complicated glacier scenarios and updating challenges in polar regions are discussed and demonstrated by representative case studies. For the first time in Antarctica, we analyze the effect of terminus types on mapped glacier areas, and in Greenland we compare the differences with glacier mapping results using Landsat OLI and ETM+. With new data sources, the methods described in this study might help to create glacier outlines on a larger scale in Antarctica and Greenland. Although data sources can be substituted, the enormous amount of manual labor required to update glacier inventories remains a significant challenge.

The southern Patagonian glaciers are known for having extremely high ablation rates. Foehn winds are one of the suspected causes, however, their influence on the annual ablation, their interannual variations, and their relationship with climate change is not well understood. We analysed the in-situ meteorological data from 2003–2020 recorded at Glaciar Perito Moreno. Daily temperature lapse rates varied substantially, from −7.8°C km−1 to 10.4°C km−1, due to foehn, fog, and katabatic winds. We find that, on average, foehn events occurred 1073 hours per year, and accounted for 20% of the annual surface ablation. This increase in surface ablation rates during foehn events occurs as a result of the enhanced sensible heat flux and net shortwave radiation. The downglacier-directed foehn winds warm the air mass over the glacier, but because of the high humidity of the foehn here, they often release latent heat by condensation. Variations in the Amundsen Sea Low influence foehn occurrence by modulating the westerly winds, which is related to the hemispherical ocean and atmospheric variability. Our results show that the local climate play an important role in the surface melting of Patagonian glaciers.

Innovations in geodesy enable widespread analysis of glacier surface elevation change and geodetic mass balance. However, coincident glacier area data are less widely available, causing inconsistent handling of glacier area change. Here we quantify the bias introduced into meters water equivalent (m w.e.) specific geodetic mass balance results when using a fixed, maximum glacier area, and illustrate the bias for five North American glaciers. Sites span latitudes from the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains (48°N) to the Central Alaska Range (63°N) between 1948 and 2021. Results show that fixed (maximum) area treatment subdues the m w.e. mass change signal, underestimating mass balance by up to 19% in our test cases. This bias scales with relative glacier area change and the mass balance magnitude. Thus, the bias for specific geodetic mass balances will be most pronounced across rapidly deglaciating regions. Our analysis underscores the need for temporally resolved glacier area in geodetic mass balance studies.

Widespread glacier losses have been observed in most glaciated regions on Earth during recent decades, with a typical pattern of strong thinning in their lower reaches and limited elevation changes in their accumulation areas. Here, we use Pléiades satellite stereo-images of the Mont-Blanc massif (Alps) to reveal that thinning took place through the entire elevation range during the exceptional 2021/22 mass-balance year. Above 3000 m a.s.l. on Argentière glacier and Mer de Glace, thinning rates exceeded 3.5 m a−1 while almost no change occurred during the previous 9 years. Below 3000 m a.s.l., these anomalous thinning rates are essentially explained by changes in surface mass balance. At higher altitudes, other processes such as firn densification may play a role. Our analysis shows that high altitude glaciers, mostly stable during the last 100 years, are now responding to the impact of climate change.

The uncertainty of glacier change projections is largely influenced by glacier models. In this study, we focus on temperature-index mass-balance (MB) models and their calibration. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we examine the influence of different surface-type dependent degree-day factors, temporal climate resolutions (daily, monthly) and downscaling options (temperature lapse rates, temperature and precipitation corrections) for 88 glaciers with in-situ observations. Our findings indicate that higher spatial and temporal resolution observations enhance MB gradient representation due to an improved calibration. The addition of surface-type distinction in the model also improves MB gradients, but the lack of independent observations limits our ability to demonstrate the added value of increased model complexity. Some model choices have systematic effects, for example weaker temperature lapse rates result in smaller projected glaciers. However, we often find counter balancing effects, such as the sensitivity to different degree-day factors for snow, firn and ice, which depends on how the glacier accumulation area ratio changes in the future. Similarly, using daily versus monthly climate data can affect glaciers differently depending on the shifting balance between melt and solid precipitation thresholds. Our study highlights the importance of considering minor model design differences to predict future glacier volumes and runoff accurately.