To improve early intervention and personalise treatment for individuals early on the psychosis continuum, a greater understanding of symptom dynamics is required. We address this by identifying and evaluating the movement between empirically derived attenuated psychotic symptomatic substates—clusters of symptoms that occur within individuals over time.

Data came from a 90-day daily diary study evaluating attenuated psychotic and affective symptoms. The sample included 96 individuals aged 18–35 on the psychosis continuum, divided into four subgroups of increasing severity based on their psychometric risk of psychosis, with the fourth meeting ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria. A multilevel hidden Markov modelling (HMM) approach was used to characterise and determine the probability of switching between symptomatic substates. Individual substate trajectories and time spent in each substate were subsequently assessed.

Four substates of increasing psychopathological severity were identified: (1) low-grade affective symptoms with negligible psychotic symptoms; (2) low levels of nonbizarre ideas with moderate affective symptoms; (3) low levels of nonbizarre ideas and unusual thought content, with moderate affective symptoms; and (4) moderate levels of nonbizarre ideas, unusual thought content, and affective symptoms. Perceptual disturbances predominantly occurred within the third and fourth substates. UHR individuals had a reduced probability of switching out of the two most severe substates.

Findings suggest that individuals reporting unusual thought content, rather than nonbizarre ideas in isolation, may exhibit symptom dynamics with greater psychopathological severity. Individuals at a higher risk of psychosis exhibited persistently severe symptom dynamics, indicating a potential reduction in psychological flexibility.

Psychosis prediction has been a key focus of psychiatry research for over 20 years. The two dominant approaches to identifying psychosis risk have been the clinical high-risk (CHR) and the familial high-risk (FHR) approaches. To date, the real-world sensitivity of these approaches – that is, the proportion of all future psychotic disorders in the population that they identify – has not been systematically reviewed.

We systematically reviewed and meta-analysed studies in MEDLINE, Embase, PsychINFO, and Web of Science (from inception until September 2024) that reported data on the sensitivity of CHR and FHR approaches – i.e., individuals with a psychosis diagnosis preceded by a CHR diagnosis or a history of parental psychosis (PROSPERO: CRD42024542268).

We identified four CHR studies and four FHR studies reporting relevant data. The pooled estimate of the sensitivity of the CHR approach was 6.7% (95% CI: 1.5–15.0%) and of the FHR approach was 6.5% (95% CI: 4.4–8.9%). There was a high level of heterogeneity between studies. Most FHR studies had a low risk of bias, but most CHR studies had a high risk of bias.

Pooled data suggest that CHR and FHR approaches, each, capture only about 6–7% of future psychotic disorders. These findings demonstrate the need for additional approaches to identify risk for psychosis.

Transition to psychosis rates within ultra-high risk (UHR) services have been declining. It may be possible to ‘enrich’ UHR cohorts based on the environmental characteristics seen more commonly in first-episode psychosis cohorts. This study aimed to determine whether transition rates varied according to the accumulated exposure to environmental risk factors at the individual (migrant status, asylum seeker/refugee status, indigenous population, cannabis/methamphetamine use), family (family history or parental separation), and neighborhood (population density, social deprivation, and fragmentation) level.

The study included UHR people aged 15–24 who attended the PACE clinic from 2012 to 2016. Cox proportional hazards models (frequentist and Bayesian) were used to assess the association between individual and accumulated factors and transition to psychosis. UHR status and transition was determined using the CAARMS. Benjamini–Hochberg was used to correct for multiple comparisons in frequentist analyses.

Of the 461 young people included, 55.5% were female and median follow-up was 307 days (IQR: 188–557) and 17.6% (n = 81) transitioned to a psychotic disorder. The proportion who transitioned increased incrementally according to the number of individual-level risk factors present (HR = 1.51, 95% CIs 1.19–1.93, p < 0.001, pcorr = 0.01). The number of family- and neighborhood-level exposures did not increase transition risk (p > 0.05). Cannabis use was the only specific risk factor significantly associated with transition (HR = 1.89, 95% CIs 1.22–2.93, pcorr = 0.03, BF = 6.74).

There is a dose–response relationship between exposure to individual-level psychosis-related environmental risk factors and transition risk in UHR patients. If replicated, this could be incorporated into a novel approach to identifying the highest-risk individuals within clinical services.

Effort-based decision-making has been proposed as a potential mechanism contributing to transdiagnostic motivational deficits in psychotic disorder and bipolar disorder. However, very limited information is available about deficits in effort-cost-decision-making in the early stages of psychotic disorder and no study has investigated effort allocation deficits before the onset of bipolar disorder. Our aim was to investigate effort-based-decision-making in ultra-high-risk for psychosis (UHR-P) and bipolar disorder (UHR-BD).

Effort-cost decision-making performance was evaluated in UHR-P (n = 72) and UHR-BD (n = 68) and healthy controls (n = 38). Effort-Expenditure for Reward Task (EEfRT) was used.

Compared to controls, both UHR-P and UHR-BD groups were associated with a reduced possibility to choose the harder task when the reward magnitudes and/or the likelihood of receiving the reward were high. In both groups, effort allocation abnormalities were associated with poor social functioning.

The current findings suggest that difficulties in effort-cost computation are transdiagnostic markers of illness liability in psychotic and bipolar disorders. In early intervention services, effort-based decision-making abnormalities should be considered as a target for interventions to manage motivational deficits in individuals at high risk for psychosis and BD.

The ‘at-risk mental state’ (ARMS) for psychosis has been critiqued for its limited prognostic ability and identification of a limited proportion of those who will develop a first episode of psychosis (FEP). Broadening the search for high-risk groups is key to improving population-level ascertainment of psychosis risk.

To explore risk enrichment in diagnostic, demographic and socio-functional domains among individuals referred to an early intervention in psychosis (EIP) service not meeting ARMS or FEP criteria.

A retrospective file review of 16 years of referrals to a tertiary EIP service in Ireland was undertaken. Diagnostic outcomes from standardised assessments (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM), demographic (age, gender, family history, nationality) and socio-occupational (relationship status, living status, working status) variables were compiled for those not meeting criteria. These were compared with individuals diagnosed with an FEP in the same period.

From 2005 to 2021 inclusive, of 2025 index assessments, 27.6% (n = 558) did not meet either FEP or ARMS criteria, which is notably higher than the 5.4% (n = 110) meeting ARMS criteria. This group had high psychiatric morbidity, with 65.4% meeting criteria for at least one DSM Axis I disorder. Depressive, anxiety and substance use disorders predominated. Their functional markers were poor, and comparable to the FEP cohort.

This group is enriched for psychosis risk factors. They are a larger group than those meeting ARMS criteria, a finding that may reflect EIP service configuration. They may be an important focus for further study in the search for at-risk populations beyond the current ARMS model.

Neurocognitive deficits are a core feature of psychosis and depression. Despite commonalities in cognitive alterations, it remains unclear if and how the cognitive deficits in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) and those with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) are distinct from those seen in recent-onset depression (ROD).

This study was carried out within the European project ‘Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management’, and aimed to characterise the cognitive profiles of patients with psychosis or depression.

We examined cognitive profiles for patients with ROP (n = 105), patients with ROD (n = 123), patients at CHR (n = 116) and healthy controls (n = 372) across seven sites in five European countries. Confirmatory factor analysis identified four cognitive factors independent of gender, education and site: speed of processing, attention and working memory, verbal learning and spatial learning.

Patients with ROP performed worse than healthy controls in all four domains (P < 0.001), whereas performance of patients with ROD was not affected (P > 0.05). Patients at CHR performed worse than healthy controls in speed of processing (P = 0.001) and spatial learning (P = 0.003), but better than patients with ROP across all cognitive domains (all P ≤ 0.01). CHR and ROD groups did not significantly differ in any cognitive domain. These findings were independent of comorbid depressive symptoms, substance consumption and illness duration.

These results show that neurocognitive abilities are affected in CHR and ROP, whereas ROD seems spared. Although our findings may support the notion that those at CHR have a specific vulnerability to psychosis, future studies investigating broader transdiagnostic risk cohorts in longitudinal designs are needed.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic produced swift, extensive changes in daily life, including for first-episode psychosis (FEP) clients. This study examined pandemic-related psychosocial impacts to clients while engaged in Coordinated Specialty Care (CSC). We also examined FEP client vaccination rates, as vaccinations can reduce hospitalizations/deaths, and related worries.

Thirty-one clients (45% female; ages 13-39; 26% black, 61% white) from Pennsylvania (PA) CSC outpatient programs completed an online survey evaluating exposure to COVID-19, associated worries, coping, and safety strategies. Descriptive statistics characterized responses and demographic group differences. Additional program evaluation data informed vaccination rates for PA FEP clients.

Participants reported substantial pandemic-related impacts to daily life. Many clients reported improved safety measures to protect themselves/others from COVID-19. Clients largely denied substantial worries about infection for themselves, reporting greater concern for loved ones. Multiple coping strategies were endorsed, which, with few exceptions, did not differ among demographic groups. FEP clients had a low reported rate of vaccination (28.6%) as of September 2021.

Observed prolonged pandemic effects may alter FEP client progress in CSC. Stakeholders should be prepared to adjust FEP treatment accordingly in the event of a similar disaster. Concentrated vaccination efforts may be necessary for this population.

Cognitive impairments are well-established features of psychotic disorders and are present when individuals are at ultra-high risk for psychosis. However, few interventions target cognitive functioning in this population.

To investigate whether omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (n−3 PUFA) supplementation improves cognitive functioning among individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

Data (N = 225) from an international, multi-site, randomised controlled trial (NEURAPRO) were analysed. Participants were given omega-3 supplementation (eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid) or placebo over 6 months. Cognitive functioning was assessed with the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS). Mixed two-way analyses of variance were computed to compare the change in cognitive performance between omega-3 supplementation and placebo over 6 months. An additional biomarker analysis explored whether change in erythrocyte n−3 PUFA levels predicted change in cognitive performance.

The placebo group showed a modest greater improvement over time than the omega-3 supplementation group for motor speed (ηp2 = 0.09) and BACS composite score (ηp2 = 0.21). After repeating the analyses without individuals who transitioned, motor speed was no longer significant (ηp2 = 0.02), but the composite score remained significant (ηp2 = 0.02). Change in erythrocyte n-3 PUFA levels did not predict change in cognitive performance over 6 months.

We found no evidence to support the use of omega-3 supplementation to improve cognitive functioning in ultra-high risk individuals. The biomarker analysis suggests that this finding is unlikely to be attributed to poor adherence or consumption of non-trial n−3 PUFAs.

Based on high rates of non-converters to psychosis, especially in children and adolescents, it was suggested that CHR criteria were (1) pluripotential, (2) a transdiagnostic risk factor, or (3) simply a severity marker of mental disorders rather than specifically psychosis-predictive. If any of these three alternative explanatory models were true, their prevalence should differ between persons with and without mental disorders, and their severity should be associated with functional impairment as a measure of severity.

To compare the prevalence and severity of CHR criteria/symptoms in children and adolescents of the community and inpatients.

We compared CHR criteria/symptoms in 8-17-year-olds of the community and of inpatients not clinically suspected to develop psychosis.

The 7.3%-prevalence rate of CHR criteria in community subjects did not differ significantly from the 9.5%-rate in inpatients. Frequency/severity of CHR criteria never differed between the community and the four inpatient groups, while the frequency and severity of CHR symptoms differed only minimally. Group differences were found in only four CHR symptoms: suspiciousness/persecutory ideas of the SIPS, and thought pressure, derealization and visual perception disturbances of the SPI-CY. These were consistent with a transdiagnostic risk factor or dimension, i.e., displayed higher frequency and severity in inpatients. Low functioning, however, was at most weakly related to the severity of CHR criteria/symptoms, with the highest, yet still weak correlation yielded for suspiciousness/persecutory ideas.

The lack of systematic differences between inpatients and community subjects does not support suggestions that CHR criteria/symptoms are pluripotential or transdiagnostic syndromes, or merely markers of symptom severity

No significant relationships.

Emerging meta-analytical evidence indicates that baseline exposure to antipsychotics in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is associated with a higher risk of an imminent transition to psychosis. Despite their tolerability profile and potential beneficial effects, baseline exposure to antidepressants (AD) in CHR-P has surprisingly received far less attention as a potential risk modulator for transition to psychosis. The current systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to fix such a knowledge gap.

Systematic scrutiny of Medline and Cochrane library, performed up to 1 August 2021, searching for English-language studies on CHR-P reporting numeric data about the sample, the transition outcome at a predefined follow-up time and raw data on AD baseline exposure in relation to such outcome.

Of 1942 identified records, 16 studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. 26% of the participants were already exposed to AD at baseline; at the end of the follow-up 13.5% (95% CI 10.2–17.1%) of them (n = 448) transitioned to psychosis against 21.0% (18.9 to 23.3%) of non-AD exposed CHR-P (n = 1371). CHR-P participants who were already under AD treatment at baseline had a lower risk of transition than non-AD exposed CHR-P. The RR was 0.71 (95% CI 0.56–0.90) in the fixed-effects model (z = −2.79; p = 0.005), and 0.78 (0.58–1.05) in the random-effects model (z = −1.77; p = 0.096; tau-squared = 0.059). There was no relevant heterogeneity (Cochran's Q = 18.45; df = 15; p = 0.239; I2 = 18.7%).

Ongoing AD exposure at inception in CHR-P is associated to a reduced risk of transition to psychosis at follow up.

The clinical outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR-P) who do not transition to psychosis are heterogeneous and inconsistently reported. We aimed to comprehensively evaluate longitudinally a wide range of outcomes in CHR-P individuals not developing psychosis.

“Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses” and “Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology”-compliant meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42021229212) searching original CHR-P longitudinal studies in PubMed and Web of Science databases up to 01/11/2021. As primary analysis, we evaluated the following outcomes within CHR-P non-transitioning individuals: (a) change in the severity of attenuated psychotic symptoms (Hedge's g); (b) change in the severity of negative psychotic symptoms (Hedge's g); (c) change in the severity of depressive symptoms (Hedge's g); (d) change in the level of functioning (Hedge's g); (e) frequency of remission (at follow-up). As a secondary analysis, we compared these outcomes in those CHR-P individuals who did not transition vs. those who did transition to psychosis at follow-up. We conducted random-effects model meta-analyses, sensitivity analyses, heterogeneity analyses, meta-regressions and publication bias assessment. The risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS).

Twenty-eight studies were included (2756 CHR-P individuals, mean age = 20.4, 45.5% females). The mean duration of follow-up of the included studies was of 30.7 months. Primary analysis: attenuated psychotic symptoms [Hedges’ g = 1.410, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.002–1.818]; negative psychotic symptoms (Hedges’ g = 0.683, 95% CI 0.371–0.995); depressive symptoms (Hedges’ g = 0.844, 95% CI 0.371–1.317); and functioning (Hedges’ g = 0.776, 95% CI 0.463–1.089) improved in CHR-P non-transitioning individuals; 48.7% remitted at follow-up (95% CI 39.3–58.2%). Secondary analysis: attenuated psychotic symptoms (Hedges’ g = 0.706, 95% CI 0.091–1.322) and functioning (Hedges’ g = 0.623, 95% CI 0.375–0.871) improved in CHR-P individuals not-transitioning compared to those transitioning to psychosis, but there were no differences in negative or depressive symptoms or frequency of remission (p > 0.05). Older age was associated with higher improvements of attenuated psychotic symptoms (β = 0.225, p = 0.012); publication years were associated with a higher improvement of functioning (β = −0.124, p = 0.0026); a lower proportion of Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms was associated with higher frequencies of remission (β = −0.054, p = 0.0085). There was no metaregression impact for study continent, the psychometric instrument used, the quality of the study or proportion of females. The NOS scores were 4.4 ± 0.9, ranging from 3 to 6, revealing the moderate quality of the included studies.

Clinical outcomes improve in CHR-P individuals not transitioning to psychosis but only less than half remit over time. Sustained clinical attention should be provided in the longer term to monitor these outcomes.

The high prevalence of smoking in individuals who are at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis is well known and moderate cognitive deficits have also been found in UHR. However, the association between smoking and cognition in UHR is unknown and longitudinal studies are lacking.

A cohort study with 330 UHR individuals and 66 controls was conducted, as part of the European network of national schizophrenia networks studying gene–environment interactions (EU-GEI). At baseline and after 6, 12, and 24 months, smoking behavior was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview and cognitive functioning with a comprehensive test battery. Linear mixed-effects analyses were used to examine the multicross-sectional and prospective associations between (change in) smoking behavior and cognitive functioning, accounting for confounding variables.

At baseline, 53% of UHR and 27% of controls smoked tobacco. Smoking UHR and controls did not significantly differ from nonsmoking counterparts on the tested cognitive domains (speed of processing, attention/vigilance, working memory, verbal learning, or reasoning/problem solving) across different assessment times. Neither smoking cessation nor initiation was associated with a significant change in cognitive functioning in UHR.

No associations were found between smoking and cognitive impairment in UHR nor in controls. However, the fact that one in every two UHR individuals report daily use of tobacco is alarming. Our data suggest that UHR have fewer cognitive impairments and higher smoking cessation rates compared to patients with first-episode psychosis found in literature. Implications to promote smoking cessation in the UHR stage need further investigation.

The European impact of the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm is constrained by the lack of critical mass (detection) to power prognostic and preventive interventions.

An ITAlian partnership for psychosis prevention (ITAPP) was created across CHR-P centers, which were surveyed to describe: (a) service, catchment area, and outreach; (b) service users; and (c) interventions and outcomes. Descriptive statistics and Kaplan–Meier failure function complemented the analyses.

The ITAPP included five CHR-P clinical academic centers established from 2007 to 2018, serving about 13 million inhabitants, with a recruitment capacity of 277 CHR-P individuals (mean age: 18.7 years, SD: 4.8, range: 12–39 years; 53.1% females; 85.7% meeting attenuated psychotic symptoms; 85.8% without any substance abuse). All centers were multidisciplinary and included adolescents and young adults (transitional) primarily recruited through healthcare services. The comprehensive assessment of at-risk mental state was the most widely used instrument, while the duration of follow-up, type of outreach, and preventive interventions were heterogeneous. Across 205 CHR-P individuals with follow up (663.7 days ± 551.7), the cumulative risk of psychosis increased from 8.7% (95% CI 5.3–14.1) at 1 year to 15.9% (95% CI 10.6–23.3) at 2 years, 21.8% (95% CI 14.9–31.3) at 3 years, 34.8% (95% CI 24.5–47.9) at 4 years, and 51.9% (95% CI 36.3–69.6) at 5 years.

The ITAPP is one of the few CHR-P clinical research partnerships in Europe for fostering detection, prognosis, and preventive care, as well as for translating research innovations into practice.

Prognostic heterogeneity in early psychosis patients yields significant difficulties in determining the degree and duration of early intervention; this heterogeneity highlights the need for prognostic biomarkers. Although mismatch negativity (MMN) has been widely studied across early phases of psychotic disorders, its potential as a common prognostic biomarker in early periods, such as clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and first-episode psychosis (FEP), has not been fully studied.

A total of 104 FEP patients, 102 CHR individuals, and 107 healthy controls (HCs) participated in baseline MMN recording. Clinical outcomes were assessed; 17 FEP patients were treatment resistant, 73 FEP patients were nonresistant, 56 CHR individuals were nonremitters (15 transitioned to a psychotic disorder), and 22 CHR subjects were remitters. Baseline MMN amplitudes were compared across clinical outcome groups and tested for utility prognostic biomarkers using binary logistic regression.

MMN amplitudes were greatest in HCs, intermediate in CHR subjects, and smallest in FEP patients. In the clinical outcome groups, MMN amplitudes were reduced from the baseline in both FEP and CHR patients with poor prognostic trajectories. Reduced baseline MMN amplitudes were a significant predictor of later treatment resistance in FEP patients [Exp(β) = 2.100, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.104–3.993, p = 0.024] and nonremission in CHR individuals [Exp(β) = 1.898, 95% CI 1.065–3.374, p = 0.030].

These findings suggest that MMN could be used as a common prognostic biomarker across early psychosis periods, which will aid clinical decisions for early intervention.

Adults with significant childhood trauma and/or serious mental illness may exhibit persistent structural brain changes within limbic structures, including the amygdala. Little is known about the structure of the amygdala prior to the onset of SMI, despite the relatively high prevalence of trauma in at-risk youth.

Data were gathered from the Canadian Psychiatric Risk and Outcome study. A total of 182 youth with a mean age of 18.3 years completed T1-weighted MRI scans along with clinical assessments that included questionnaires on symptoms of depression and anxiety. Participants also completed the Childhood Trauma and Abuse Scale. We used a novel subfield-specific amygdala segmentation workflow as a part of FreeSurfer 6.0 to examine amygdala structure.

Participants with higher trauma scores were more likely to have smaller amygdala volumes, particularly within the basal regions. Among various types of childhood trauma, sexual and physical abuse had the largest effects on amygdala subregions. Abuse-related differences in the right basal region mediated the severity of depression and anxiety symptoms, even though no participants met criteria for clinical diagnosis at the time of assessment.

The experience of physical or sexual abuse may leave detectable structural alterations in key regions of the amygdala, potentially mediating the risk of psychopathology in trauma-exposed youth.

In patients with schizophrenia, premorbid psychosocial adjustment is an important predictor of functional outcome. We studied functional outcome in young clinical high-risk (CHR) patients and how this was predicted by their childhood to adolescence premorbid adjustment.

In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed with the Premorbid Adjustment Scale, the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS) and the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-A). The SIPS assesses positive, negative, disorganised, general symptoms, and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), the SPI-A self-experienced basic symptoms; they were carried out at baseline, at 9-month and 18-month follow-up. Transitions to psychosis were identified. In the hierarchical linear model, associations between premorbid adjustment, background data, symptoms, transitions to psychosis and GAF scores were analysed.

During the 18-month follow-up, GAF scores improved significantly, and the proportion of patients with poor functioning decreased from 74% to 37%. Poor premorbid adjustment, single marital status, poor work status, and symptoms were associated with low baseline GAF scores. Low GAF scores were predicted by poor premorbid adjustment, negative, positive and basic symptoms, and poor baseline work status. The association between premorbid adjustment and follow-up GAF scores remained significant, even when baseline GAF and transition to psychosis were included in the model.

A great majority of help-seeking CHR patients suffer from deficits in their functioning. In CHR patients, premorbid psychosocial adjustment, baseline positive, negative, basic symptoms and poor working/schooling situation predict poor short-term functional outcome. These aspects should be taken into account when acute intervention and long-term rehabilitation for improving outcome in CHR patients are carried out.