Perceived intergenerational mobility profoundly influences individual attitudes and behaviour, carrying important implications for social stability and development. How do Chinese citizens perceive the intergenerational persistence of family advantages, and how do these perceptions compare with reality? This study conducts multiple randomized vignette experiments across two online surveys to assess public perceptions of correlations between various socio-economic indicators of parents and their children. Respondents estimate moderate to moderately strong correlations across generations. By leveraging the comparability of perceptions and objective estimates made possible by our novel measurement instrument, we find that respondents often overestimate the likelihood of equal opportunities for children from families with differing educational backgrounds. Alongside these largely optimistic perceptions, we also uncover signs of emerging pessimism. These results offer a nuanced snapshot of perceived social mobility in China, highlighting its multidimensional manifestations and divergence from reality, while also providing methodological insights for future research on its evolving dynamics.

This paper attempts to explain why education fails to facilitate upward mobility for migrant children in China. By comparing a public school and a private migrant school in Shanghai, two mechanisms are found to underpin the reproduction of the class system: the ceiling effect, which is at work in public schools, and the counter-school culture, which prevails in private migrant schools. Both mechanisms might be understood as adaptations to the external circumstances of – and institutional discrimination against – migrants rather than as resistance to the prevailing institutional systems. Thus, the functioning of these mechanisms further strengthens the inequality embodied in the system.