Tidal flooding occurs when coastal water levels exceed impact-based flood thresholds due to tides alone, under average weather conditions. Transitions to tidal flood regimes are already underway for nuisance flood severities in harbours and bays and expected for higher severities in coming decades. In the first such regional assessment, we show that the same transition to tidally forced floods can also be expected to occur in Australian estuaries with less than 0.1 m further sea-level rise. Flood thresholds that historically used to only be exceeded under the combined effects of riverine (freshwater) and coastal (salt water) influences will then occur due to high tides alone. Once this tidal flooding emerges, it is projected to become chronic within two decades. Locations most at-risk of the emergence of tidal flooding and subsequent establishment of chronic flood regimes are those just inside estuary entrances. These locations are exemplified by low freeboard, the vertical distance between a flood threshold and a typical high tide level. We use a freeboard-based analysis to estimate the sea-level rise required for impacts associated with official flood thresholds to occur due to tides alone. The resultant tide-only flood frequency estimates provide a lower bound for future flood rates.

Simulating abundances of stable water isotopologues, that is, molecules differing in their isotopic composition, within climate models allows for comparisons with proxy data and, thus, for testing hypotheses about past climate and validating climate models under varying climatic conditions. However, many models are run without explicitly simulating water isotopologues. We investigate the possibility of replacing the explicit physics-based simulation of oxygen isotopic composition in precipitation using machine learning methods. These methods estimate isotopic composition at each time step for given fields of surface temperature and precipitation amount. We implement convolutional neural networks (CNNs) based on the successful UNet architecture and test whether a spherical network architecture outperforms the naive approach of treating Earth’s latitude-longitude grid as a flat image. Conducting a case study on a last millennium run with the iHadCM3 climate model, we find that roughly 40% of the temporal variance in the isotopic composition is explained by the emulations on interannual and monthly timescale, with spatially varying emulation quality. The tested CNNs outperform simple baseline models such as random forest and pixel-wise linear regression substantially. A modified version of the standard UNet architecture for flat images yields results that are as good as the predictions by the spherical CNN. Variations in the implementation of isotopes between climate models likely contribute to an observed deterioration of emulation results when testing on data obtained from different climate models than the one used for training. Future work toward stable water-isotope emulation might focus on achieving robust climate–oxygen isotope relationships or exploring the set of possible predictor variables.

Parasite infracommunities tend to be stochastic in nature, although environmental characteristics such as the type of water source in streams and host traits can have an effect on the biotic assemblages and by extension the parasite fauna. We examined the effect of water source and the rate of adult fish migration on the metazoan parasite infracommunities of conspecific juvenile brown trout, Salmo trutta L. among streams flowing into Lake Lucerne (Switzerland). Juvenile (1 to 2-year old) fish harboured higher parasite species richness in groundwater-fed than in surface water-fed streams, whereas the rate of fish migration did not affect infracommunity richness. Heteroxenous species were more common in groundwater-fed streams with high and medium rates of trout migration, whereas infracommunities in surface water-fed streams and streams with low rates of fish migration were dominated by one monoxenous parasite or lacked infections. Similarity in the parasite infracommunity composition of juvenile trout across streams was explained by the interaction between type of water source and adult migration rates. Our conclusions support that similarity in the parasite composition of resident freshwater conspecifics can be predicted by the local environmental settings and host migratory behaviour, whereas parasite richness is mainly influenced by the environmental characteristics.

Sensation seeking scale (SSS) scores were determined in 15 alcohol dependent men with a positive family history for alcoholism (FHP), in 15 alcohol dependent men with a negative family history for alcoholism (FHN) and in 15 well-matched healthy male controls (CONTR). Both FHPs and FHNs suffered from longlasting alcohol dependence meeting ICD-10 and DSM-III-R diagnostic criteria. Dopamine activity was neuroendocrinologically assessed by measuring the amount of growth hormone released after stimulation with the dopamine receptor agonist apomorphine. Planned comparisons within a one-way ANOVA yielded significantly elevated levels of boredom susceptibility (BOS) in both FHPs and FHNs against CONTRs. SSS total scores, while approaching statistical significance, were elevated in FHPs only. Partial correlations (controlling for age, body weight, alcohol intake and duration of dependence) were calculated to examine the relationship between SSS and dopamine activity. Among the SSS subtraits, BOS revealed the highest correlation in each group. However, only in CONTRs did the relationship between BOS and dopamine activity reach statistical significance.

Surface melt on the coastal Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) determines the viability of its ice shelves and the stability of the grounded ice sheet, but very few in situ melt rate estimates exist to date. Here we present a benchmark dataset of in situ surface melt rates and energy balance from nine sites in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and coastal Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, seven of which are located on AIS ice shelves. Meteorological time series from eight automatic and one staffed weather station (Neumayer), ranging in length from 15 months to almost 24 years, serve as input for an energy-balance model to obtain consistent surface melt rates and energy-balance results. We find that surface melt rates exhibit large temporal, spatial and process variability. Intermittent summer melt in coastal DML is primarily driven by absorption of shortwave radiation, while non-summer melt events in the eastern AP occur during föhn events that force a large downward directed turbulent flux of sensible heat. We use the in situ surface melt rate dataset to evaluate melt rates from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 and validate a melt product from the QuikSCAT satellite.

Models of products and design processes are key to interacting with engineering designs and managing the processes by which they are developed. In practice, companies maintain networks of many interrelated models which need to be synthesised in the minds of their users when considering issues that cut across them. This article considers how information from product and design process models can be integrated with a view to help manage these complex interrelationships. A framework highlighting key issues surrounding model integration is introduced and terminology for describing these issues is developed. To illustrate the framework and terminology, selected modelling approaches that integrate product and process information are discussed and organised according to their levels and forms of integration. Opportunities for further work to advance integrated modelling in engineering design research and practice are discussed.

Supraglacial ponds play a key role in absorbing atmospheric energy and directing it to the ice of debris-covered glaciers, but the spatial and temporal distribution of these features is not well documented. We analyse 172 Landsat TM/ETM+ scenes for the period 1999–2013 to identify thawed supraglacial ponds for the debris-covered tongues of five glaciers in the Langtang Valley of Nepal. We apply an advanced atmospheric correction routine (Landcor/6S) and use band ratio and image morphological techniques to identify ponds and validate our results with 2.5 m Cartosat-1 observations. We then characterize the spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns of ponds. We find high variability in pond incidence between glaciers (May–October means of 0.08–1.69% of debris area), with ponds most frequent in zones of low surface gradient and velocity. The ponds show pronounced seasonality, appearing in the pre-monsoon as snow melts, peaking at the monsoon onset at 2% of debris-covered area, then declining in the post-monsoon as ponds drain or freeze. Ponds are highly recurrent and persistent, with 40.5% of pond locations occurring for multiple years. Rather than a trend in pond cover over the study period, we find high interannual variability for each glacier after controlling for seasonality.

Glacier surface mass-balance measurements on Greenland started more than a century ago, but no compilation exists of the observations from the ablation area of the ice sheet and local glaciers. Such data could be used in the evaluation of modelled surface mass balance, or to document changes in glacier melt independently from model output. Here, we present a comprehensive database of Greenland glacier surface mass-balance observations from the ablation area of the ice sheet and local glaciers. The database spans the 123 a from 1892 to 2015, contains a total of ~3000 measurements from 46 sites, and is openly accessible through the PROMICE web portal (http://www.promice.dk). For each measurement we provide X, Y and Z coordinates, starting and ending dates as well as quality flags. We give sources for each entry and for all metadata. Two thirds of the data were collected from grey literature and unpublished archive documents. Roughly 60% of the measurements were performed by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS, previously GGU). The data cover all regions of Greenland except for the southernmost part of the east coast, but also emphasize the importance of long-term time series of which there are only two exceeding 20 a. We use the data to analyse uncertainties in point measurements of surface mass balance, as well as to estimate surface mass-balance profiles for most regions of Greenland.