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The side effects of a big push growth strategy: export incentives and primary education under military rule in Brazil, 1967–1985

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 October 2024

Thomas H. Kang Open the ORCID record for Thomas H. Kang [Opens in a new window] ,
Isabela Menetrier Open the ORCID record for Isabela Menetrier [Opens in a new window]  and
Flavio Comim Open the ORCID record for Flavio Comim [Opens in a new window]
Thomas H. Kang*
Affiliation:
Department of Economics and International Relations, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, Brazil
Isabela Menetrier
Affiliation:
Development Impact Evaluation, World Bank, Washington, USA
Flavio Comim
Affiliation:
Department of Ethics and Department of Economics, Universitat Ramon Llull, IQS School of Management, Barcelona, Spain Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
*
Corresponding author: Thomas H. Kang; Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

During the military regime in Brazil (1964–1985), enrollment ratios in primary education grew substantially in the first decade under dictatorship, but stagnated in the mid-1970s. This paper shows that education spending might depend on the levels of centralisation in tax matters. Using panel data regressions and qualitative evidence, we argue that a massive big push industrialisation programme increased the pressure on external accounts, leading the government to intensify an export incentive policy based on tax subsidies that decreased the income of subnational governments. As a result, the capacity of funding mass education was compromised in the second half of the 1970s.

Resumen

Resumen

Durante el régimen militar en Brasil (1964–1985), las tasas de matrícula en la educación primaria crecieron sustancialmente en la primera década bajo la dictadura, pero se estancaron a mediados de los años setenta. Este artículo muestra que el gasto en educación podría depender de los niveles de centralización en materia tributaria. Utilizando regresiones de datos de panel y evidencia cualitativa, sostenemos que un programa masivo de industrialización aumentó la presión sobre las cuentas externas, lo que llevó al gobierno a intensificar una política de incentivos a las exportaciones basada en subsidios fiscales que disminuyeron los ingresos de los gobiernos subnacionales. Como resultado, la capacidad de financiar la educación masiva se vio comprometida en la segunda mitad de los años setenta.

Keywords

political economy of educationfiscal federalismeconomic history of educationcentralisationN36H52I25economía política de la educaciónfederalismo fiscalhistoria económica de la educacióncentralización
Type
Articles/Artículos
Information
Revista de Historia Economica - Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History , Volume 42 , Issue 3 , December 2024 , pp. 387 - 414
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Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

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