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A new paleoclimate perspective shows that arid regions will be drier under global warming conditions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 April 2025

Yu Li ,
Simin Peng ,
Zhansen Zhang  and
Junjie Duan
Yu Li*
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Hydrologic Cycle and Water Resources in Arid Region, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
Simin Peng
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Hydrologic Cycle and Water Resources in Arid Region, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Ministry of Education), School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
Zhansen Zhang
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Hydrologic Cycle and Water Resources in Arid Region, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
Junjie Duan
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Hydrologic Cycle and Water Resources in Arid Region, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
*
Corresponding author: Yu Li; Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

Studies on the evolution of characteristics and dynamic mechanisms of dry/wet status in global arid regions are contradictory. We systematically assessed the evolution and drivers of dry/wet status in global arid regions from a paleoclimate perspective using observational datasets, paleoclimate records, and climate model simulations from Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4)-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and PMIP3-CMIP5. Our results show that climate change during the last glacial maximum (LGM) provides a reverse analog for the near-future climate in global arid regions. The notable migration of the subtropical high during the LGM profoundly altered the atmospheric circulation and influenced dry/wet status in global arid regions. The multimodel ensembles project that under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 8.5 scenario, nonuniform heating induced by polar-amplified warming will introduce northward migration of the subtropical high. The resulting reduction in subtropical precipitation will lead to expansion of global arid regions under global warming, which is consistent with previous studies based on atmospheric aridity.

Keywords

global arid regionsglobal warmingprojectionpaleoclimate perspectivelast glacial maximumclimate analog
Type
Research Article
Information
Quaternary Research , First View , pp. 1 - 13
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© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Quaternary Research Center.

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