Hostname: page-component-669899f699-tzmfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-30T00:22:50.079Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Preventive War as a Result of Long-Term Shifts in Power*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 August 2015

Colin Krainin
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper analyzes a complete information model of preventive war where shifts in the distribution of power play out over an arbitrary number of time periods. This analysis leads to a sufficient condition that implies war under a broader set of conditions than previously shown in the literature. This sufficient condition leads to two substantive implications: (1) preventive war can be caused by relatively slow, but persistent shifts in the distribution of power; and (2) a power shift that causes war may do so only after some delay. These insights serve to connect the long-term shifts emphasized in Power Transition Theory with the commitment problem explanation for preventive war analyzed in bargaining models of war.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 5 , Issue 1 , January 2017 , pp. 103 - 121
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2015 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

Footnotes

*

Colin Krainin, Postdoctoral Researcher, School of Social Sciences, University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany ([email protected]). The author would like to thank Bei Cao, Terry Chapman, Daniel McCormack, Pat McDonald, Henry Pascoe, Robert Powell, Teresa Schuessler, John Slinkman, Harrison Wagner, Rachel Wellhausen, Tom Wiseman, and internal seminar and workshop participants of The University of Texas at Austin Economics and Government Departments. The author would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers whose comments have greatly improved the paper.

References

Chapman, Terrence, McDonald, Patrick J., and Moser, Scott. 2015. ‘The Domestic Politics of Strategic Retrenchment, Power Shifts, and Preventive War’. International Studies Quarterly 59(1):133–144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copeland, Dale C. 2000. The Origins of Major War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Debs, Alexandre, and Monteiro, Nuno P.. 2014. ‘Known Unknowns: Power Shifts, Uncertainty, and War’. International Organization 68(1):1–31.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. ‘Rationalist Explanations for War’. International Organization 49(3):379–414.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1996. ‘Bargaining Over Objects That Influence Future Bargaining Power’. Stanford University, Typescript, Stanford, CA.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2004. ‘Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Long?’ Journal of Peace Research 41(3):275–301.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2007. ‘Fighting Rather Than Bargaining’. Stanford University. Typescript, Stanford, CA.Google Scholar
Fravel, M. Taylor. 2007. ‘Power Shifts and Escalation: Explaining China’s Use of Force in Territorial Disputes’. International Security 32(3):44–83.Google Scholar
Fravel, M. Taylor. 2010. ‘International Relations Theory and China’s Rise: Assessing China’s Potential for Territorial Expansion’. International Studies Review 12(4):505–532.Google Scholar
Friedberg, Aaron. 2005. ‘The Future of US-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?’ International Security 30(2):7–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, Avery. 2007. ‘Power Transitions, Institutions, and China’s Rise in East Asia: Theoretical Expectations and Evidence’. Journal of Strategic Studies 30(4):639–682.Google Scholar
Hermann, David. 1996. The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Leventoglu, Bahar, and Slantchev, Branislav. 2007. ‘The Armed Peace: A Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of War’. American Journal of Political Science 51(4):755–771.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack. 2008. ‘Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China’. In Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng (eds), China’s Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics. 11–33. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 2006. ‘China’s Unpeaceful Rise’. Current History 105(690):160–162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDonald, Patrick J. 2011. ‘Complicating Commitment: Free Resources, Power Shifts, and the Fiscal Politics of Preventive War’. International Studies Quarterly 55(4):1095–1120.Google Scholar
Mombauer, Annika. 2001. Helmuth von Moltke and the Origins of the First World War. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
National Security Council. 1990. Meeting of the NSC Meeting. Meeting Notes, 3 August, Margaret Thatcher Foundation Website. Available at www.margaretthatcher.org, accessed 14 May 2013.Google Scholar
Organski, Abramo F.K. 1968. World Politics. New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf.Google Scholar
Organski, Abramo F.K., and Kugler, Jacek. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1999. In the Shadow of Power. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2004a. ‘Bargaining and Learning While Fighting’. American Journal of Political Science 48(2):344–361.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2004b. ‘The Inefficient Use of Power: Costly Conflict with Complete Information’. American Journal of Political Science Review 98(2):231–241.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2006. ‘War as a Commitment Problem’. International Organization 60(1):169–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2012. ‘Persistent Fighting and Shifting Power’. American Journal of Political Science 56(3):620–637.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2013. ‘Monopolizing Violence and Consolidating Power’. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 128(2):807–859.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schwarz, Michael, and Sonin, Konstantin. 2008. ‘A Theory of Brinkmanship, Conflicts, and Commitments’. Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 24(1):161–183.Google Scholar
Stevenson, David. 1996. Armaments and the Coming of War: Europe, 1904–1914. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tammen, Ronald L. and Kugler, Jacek. 2006. ‘Power Transition and China–US Conflicts’. Chinese Journal of International Politics 1(1):35–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thucydides. 1954. History of the Peloponnesian War, (Translated by Rex Warner) New York, NY: Penguin Group.Google Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 2000. ‘Bargaining and War’. American Journal of Political Science 44(3):469–484.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolford, Scott, Reiter, Dan, and Carrubba, Clifford. 2011. ‘Information, Commitment, and War’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 55(4):556–579.Google Scholar
Yared, Pierre. 2010. ‘A Dynamic Theory of War and Peace’. Journal of Economic Theory 145(5):1921–1950.Google Scholar