The allelic composition at five glutenin loci was assessed by one-dimensional sodium dodecyl sulphate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (1D SDS–PAGE) on a set of 155 landraces (from 21 Mediterranean countries) and 18 representative modern varieties. Gluten strength was determined by SDS-sedimentation on samples grown under rainfed conditions during 3 years in north-eastern Spain. One hundred and fourteen alleles/banding patterns were identified (25 at Glu-1 and 89 at Glu-2/Glu-3 loci); 0·85 of them were in landraces at very low frequency and 0·72 were unreported. Genetic diversity index was 0·71 for landraces and 0·38 for modern varieties. All modern varieties exhibited medium to strong gluten type with none of their 13 banding patterns having a significant effect on gluten-strength type. Ten banding patterns significantly affected gluten strength in landraces. Alleles Glu-B1e (band 20), Glu-A3a (band 6), Glu-A3d (bands 6 + 11), Glu-B3a (bands 2 + 4+15 + 19) and Glu-B2a (band 12) significantly increased the SDS-value, and their effects were associated with their frequency. Two alleles, Glu-A3b (band 5) and Glu-B2b (null), significantly reduced gluten strength, but only the effect of the latter locus could be associated with its frequency. Only three rare banding patterns affected gluten strength significantly: Glu-B1a (band 7), found in six landraces, had a negative effect, whereas banding patterns 2 + 4+14 + 15 + 18 and 2 + 4+15 + 18 + 19 at Glu-B3 had a positive effect. Landraces with outstanding gluten strength were more frequent in eastern than in western Mediterranean countries. The geographical pattern displayed from the frequencies of Glu-A1c is discussed.

A collection of 26 wheat genotypes widely grown in Spain during the 20th century was evaluated in eight contrasting environments in order to quantify breeding achievements in yield and associated traits. From 1930 to 2000, yield increased at a rate of 35·1 kg/ha/yr or 0·88%/yr, but estimations of relative genetic gain (RGG) were environment-dependent. RGG estimated for yield were positively associated with the average minimum daily temperatures from sowing to heading in the testing environments (R2 = 0·81; P < 0·01). The number of grains/spike and the number of spikes/m2 increased at a rate of 0·60%/yr and 0·30%/yr, respectively, while grain weight remained unchanged. The present study detected two main episodes of yield improvement during the century. The first one coincided with the introduction, during the 1950s, of the first improved cultivars derived from intra-specific crosses, which increased the yield of landraces by 30% due to an increase of c. 58% in the number of grains/spike, accompanied by a 16% reduction in grain weight. These initial cultivars (termed ‘old-bred’ in a previous study by Sanchez-Garcia et al. 2012) exhibited a higher harvest index (HI), increased from 0·25 to 0·40, but maintained the same aboveground biomass at maturity as the landraces (despite reducing both plant height and the number of tillers/plant) due to increases in the proportion of tillers bearing spikes. The second yield gain occurred after the introduction, in the early 1970s, of semi-dwarf germplasm from CIMMYT (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre) and some French cultivars. This new germplasm further reduced plant height, improved HI up to 0·45 and increased the number of tillers/plant while maintaining their rate of fertility, thus resulting in a yield gain of c. 37%. The cultivars released during the last decade of the century did not contribute to significant yield improvements.

Successful crop production depends initially on the availability of high-quality seed. By 2050 global climate change will have influenced crop yields, but will these changes affect seed quality? The present review examines the effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature during seed production on three seed quality components: seed mass, germination and seed vigour.

In response to elevated CO2, seed mass has been reported to both increase and decrease in C3 plants, but not change in C4 plants. Increases are greater in legumes than non-legumes, and there is considerable variation among species. Seed mass increases may result in a decrease of seed nitrogen (N) concentration in non-legumes. Increasing temperature may decrease seed mass because of an accelerated growth rate and reduced seed filling duration, but lower seed mass does not necessarily reduce seed germination or vigour.

Like seed mass, reported seed germination responses to elevated CO2 have been variable. The reported changes in seed C/N ratio can decrease seed protein content which may eventually lead to reduced viability. Conversely, increased ethylene production may stimulate germination in some species. High-temperature stress before developing seeds reach physiological maturity (PM) can reduce germination by inhibiting the ability of the plant to supply the assimilates necessary to synthesize the storage compounds required for germination.

Nothing is known concerning the effects of elevated CO2 on seed vigour. However, seed vigour can be reduced by high-temperature stress both before and after PM. High temperatures induce or increase the physiological deterioration of seeds. Limited evidence suggests that only short periods of high-temperature stress at critical seed development stages are required to reduce seed vigour, but further research is required.

The predicted environmental changes will lead to losses of seed quality, particularly for seed vigour and possibly germination. The seed industry will need to consider management changes to minimize the risk of this occurring.

Global climate change is predicted to shift seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns. An increasing frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and prolonged droughts is predicted, but there are high levels of uncertainty about the nature of local changes. Crop adaptation will be important in reducing potential damage to agriculture. Crop diversity may enhance resilience to climate variability and changes that are difficult to predict. Therefore, there has to be sufficient diversity within the set of available cultivars in response to weather parameters critical for yield formation. To determine the scale of such ‘weather response diversity’ within barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), an important crop in northern conditions, the yield responses of a wide range of modern and historical varieties were analysed according to a well-defined set of critical agro-meteorological variables. The Finnish long-term dataset of MTT Official Variety Trials was used together with historical weather records of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The foci of the analysis were firstly to describe the general response of barley to different weather conditions and secondly to reveal the diversity among varieties in the sensitivity to each weather variable. It was established that barley yields were frequently reduced by drought or excessive rain early in the season, by high temperatures at around heading, and by accelerated temperature sum accumulation rates during periods 2 weeks before heading and between heading and yellow ripeness. Low temperatures early in the season increased yields, but frost during the first 4 weeks after sowing had no effect. After canopy establishment, higher precipitation on average resulted in higher yields. In a cultivar-specific analysis, it was found that there were differences in responses to all but three of the studied climatic variables: waterlogging and drought early in the season and temperature sum accumulation rate before heading. The results suggest that low temperatures early in the season, delayed sowing, rain 3–7 weeks after sowing, a temperature change 3–4 weeks after sowing, a high temperature sum accumulation rate from heading to yellow ripeness and high temperatures (⩾25°C) at around heading could mostly be addressed by exploiting the traits found in the range of varieties included in the present study. However, new technology and novel genetic material are needed to enable crops to withstand periods of excessive rain or drought early in the season and to enhance performance under increased temperature sum accumulation rates prior to heading.

An inventory of topsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) content in household farms was performed in a village from a red earth region in Jiangxi Province, China in 2003. In this region, the farmland managed by each household is fragmented, consisting of several plots of land that are not necessarily adjacent to each other. A statistical analysis of SOC variation with land use and household management type, and with crop management practices was conducted. Plot size ranged from 0·007 to 0·630 ha with a mean of 0·1 ha, and SOC content ranged from 1·72 to 25·2 g/kg, varying widely with a variety of land management and agricultural practices, arising from individual household behaviours. The mean SOC content in plot size <0·1 ha was 20% lower than in plot size ⩾0·1 ha. SOC of dry crop plots was 70% lower than that in rice paddies, and SOC of plots contracted from the village was almost double that of plots leased from other householders. Moreover, a 30% increase in SOC was observed with green manure cultivation, and a 55% increase under triple cropping. The difference in SOC levels between the least and most favourable cases of household land management and agricultural practice was up to 150%. The results suggest that policies targeted at crop management alone may not deliver the expected SOC benefits if household land management is also not improved.

In recent years, simulation models have been used as a complementary tool for research and for quantifying soil carbon sequestration under widely varying conditions. This has improved the understanding and prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and crop yield responses to soil and climate conditions and crop management scenarios. The goal of the present study was to estimate the changes in SOC for different cropping systems in West Africa using a simulation model. A crop rotation experiment conducted in Farakô-Ba, Burkina Faso was used to evaluate the performance of the cropping system model (CSM) of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) for simulating yield of different crops. Eight crop rotations that included cotton, sorghum, peanut, maize and fallow, and three different management scenarios, one without N (control), one with chemical fertilizer (N) and one with manure applications, were studied. The CSM was able to simulate the yield trends of various crops, with inconsistencies for a few years. The simulated SOC increased slightly across the years for the sorghum–fallow rotation with manure application. However, SOC decreased for all other rotations except for the continuous fallow (native grassland), in which the SOC remained stable. The model simulated SOC for the continuous fallow system with a high degree of accuracy normalized root mean square error (RMSE)=0·001, while for the other crop rotations the simulated SOC values were generally within the standard deviation (s.d.) range of the observed data. The crop rotations that included a supplemental N-fertilizer or manure application showed an increase in the average simulated aboveground biomass for all crops. The incorporation of this biomass into the soil after harvest reduced the loss of SOC. In the present study, the observed SOC data were used for characterization of production systems with different SOC dynamics. Following careful evaluation of the CSM with observed soil organic matter (SOM) data similar to the study presented here, there are many opportunities for the application of the CSM for carbon sequestration and resource management in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The UK dairy sector has undergone considerable structural change in recent years, with a decrease in the number of producers accompanied by an increased average herd size and increased concentrate use and milk yields. One of the key drivers to producers remaining in the industry is the profitability of their herds. The current paper adopts a holistic approach to decomposing the variation in dairy profitability through an analysis of net margin data explained by physical input–output measures, milk price variation, labour utilization and managerial behaviours and characteristics. Data are drawn from the Farm Business Survey (FBS) for England in 2007/08 for 228 dairy enterprises. Average yields are 7100 litres/cow/yr, from a herd size of 110 cows that use 0·56 forage ha/cow/yr and 43·2 labour h/cow/yr. An average milk price of 22·57 pence per litre (ppl) produced milk output of £1602/cow/yr, which after accounting for calf sales, herd replacements and quota leasing costs, gave an average dairy output of £1516/cow/yr. After total costs of £1464/cow/yr this left an economic return of £52/cow/yr (0·73 ppl) net margin profit. There is wide variation in performance, with the most profitable (as measured by net margin per cow) quartile of producers achieving 2000 litres/cow/yr more than the least profitable quartile, returning a net margin of £335/cow/yr compared to a loss of £361/cow/yr for the least profitable. The most profitable producers operate larger, higher yielding herds and achieve a greater milk price for their output. In addition, a significantly greater number of the most profitable producers undertake financial benchmarking within their businesses and operate specialist dairy farms. When examining the full data set, the most profitable enterprises included significantly greater numbers of organic producers. The most profitable tend to have a greater reliance on independent technical advice, but this finding is not statistically significant. Decomposing the variation in net margin performance between the most and least profitable groups, an approximate ratio of 65:23:12 is observed for higher yields: lower costs: higher milk price. This result indicates that yield differentials are the key performance driver in dairy profitability. Lower costs per cow are dominated by the significantly lower cost of farmer and spouse labour per cow of the most profitable group, flowing directly from the upper quartile expending 37·7 labour h/cow/yr in comparison with 58·8 h/cow/yr for the lower quartile. The upper quartile's greater milk price is argued to be achieved through contract negotiations and higher milk quality, and this accounts for 0·12 of the variation in net margin performance. The average economic return to the sample of dairy enterprises in this survey year was less than £6000/farm/yr. However, the most profitable quartile returned an average economic return of approximately £50 000 per farm/yr. Structural change in the UK dairy sector is likely to continue with the least profitable and typically smaller dairy enterprises being replaced by a smaller number of expanding dairy production units.

Simplified cultivation technologies for rice have become increasingly attractive in recent years in China because of their social, economical and environmental benefits. To date, several simplified cultivation technologies, such as conventional tillage and seedling throwing (CTST), conventional tillage and direct seeding (CTDS), no-tillage and seedling throwing (NTST), no-tillage and direct seeding (NTDS) and no-tillage and transplanting (NTTP), have been developed in China. Most studies have shown that rice grown under each of these simplified cultivation technologies can produce a grain yield equal to or higher than traditional cultivation (conventional tillage and transplanting). Studies that have described the influences of agronomic practices on yield formation of rice under simplified cultivation have demonstrated that optimizing agronomy practices would increase the efficiencies of simplified cultivation systems. Further research is needed to optimize the management strategies for CTST, CTDS and NTST rice which have developed quickly in recent years, to strengthen basic research for those simplified cultivation technologies that are rarely used at present (such as NTTP and NTDS), to select and breed cultivars suitable for simplified cultivation and to compare the practicability and effectiveness of different simplified cultivation technologies in different rice production regions.

The effect of high temperatures (above 25°C) on starch concentration and the morphology of starch granules in the grains of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were studied. Wheat plants of cultivars Yangmai 9 (weak-gluten) and Yangmai 12 (medium-gluten) were treated with high temperatures for 3 days at different times after anthesis. The results showed that the starch concentration of grains given a heat-shock treatment above 30°C were lower than those developing at normal temperature in both cultivars. High temperature lowered starch concentration due to the decrease of amylopectin. Under the same temperature, the effect of heat shock from 6 to 8 days after anthesis (DAA) was the greatest, whereas from 36 to 38 DAA the effect was the least. The effects of high temperatures after anthesis on starch-pasting properties were similar to those on starch concentration, especially after 35–40°C treatments. The size, shape and structure of starch granules in wheat grains (determined by electron microscopy) after heat shock were visibly different from the control. When given heat shock during development, the starch granules in mature wheat grains were ellipsoid in shape and bound loosely with a protein sheath in Yangmai 9, while they were damaged and compressed with fissures in Yangmai 12, indicating the differences in resistance to high temperature between cultivars. Ratios of large (type-A) and small (type-B) starch granules significantly decreased under heat shock, which limited the potential sink size for dry matter deposition in the grain.

Maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia, and was selected for research of the effect of climate warming on yields. The Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer model (DSSAT) is one of the most utilized crop–weather models in the world, and was used in this paper for the investigation of maize growth and production in the present and future climate. The impact of present climate on maize yield was studied using DSSAT 4.0 with meteorological data from the Zagreb–Maksimir station covering the period 1949–2004. Pedological, physiological and genetic data from a 1999 field maize experiment at the same location were added. The location is representative of the continental climate in central Croatia. The linear trends of model outputs and the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test indicate that the beginning of silking has advanced significantly by 1·4 days/decade since the mid-1990s, and maturity by 4·5 days/decade. It also shows a decrease in biomass by 122 kg/ha and in maize yield by 216 kg/ha in 10 years.

Estimates of the sensitivity of maize growth and yield in future climates were made by changing the initial weather and CO2 conditions of the DSSAT 4.0 model according to the different climatic scenarios for Croatia at the end of the 21st century. Changed climate suggests increases in global solar radiation, minimal temperature and maximal temperature (×1·07, 2 and 4°C, respectively), but a decrease in the amount of precipitation (×0·92), compared with weather data from the period 1949–2004. The reduction of maize yield was caused by the increase in minimal and maximal temperature and the decrease in precipitation amount, related to the present climate, is 6, 12 and 3%, respectively. A doubling of CO2 concentration stimulates leaf assimilation, but maize yield is only 1% higher, while global solar radiation growth by 7% increases evapotranspiration by 3%. Simultaneous application of all these climate changes suggested that the maize growth period would shorten by c. 1 month and maize yield would decrease by 9%, with the main reason for maize yield reduction in Croatia being due to extremely warm conditions in the future climate.