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Accepted manuscript

Global corn area from 1960 to 2030: patterns, trends, and implications

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 February 2025

Rafael Augusto Vieira ,
Renan Santos Uhdre Open the ORCID record for Renan Santos Uhdre [Opens in a new window] ,
Carlos Alberto Scapim  and
Guillermo Van Becelaere
Rafael Augusto Vieira
Affiliation:
Bayer Crop Science, Department of Plant Breeding, Uberlandia, Minas Gerais, Brazil. E-mail: [email protected].
Renan Santos Uhdre*
Affiliation:
Washington State University, Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, Pullman, WA, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Carlos Alberto Scapim
Affiliation:
Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departament of Agronomy, Maringa, Parana, Brazil. E-mail: [email protected]
Guillermo Van Becelaere
Affiliation:
Bayer Crop Science, Department of Plant Breeding, Fontezuela, Buenos Aires, Argentina. E-mail: [email protected]
*
Corresponding author: Renan Santos Uhdre. [email protected]
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Abstract

The study analysed corn harvested areas from 1960 to 2030, using data from the USDA open-access official dataset and 1,000 ARIMA models. The global corn harvested area experienced a steady growth rate of 1.0% in the 1960s, followed by a slight setback in the 1980s and a recovery in the 1990s. The early 2000s saw significant expansion, while the 2010s saw a slightly slower pace of 1.4%. From 2020 to 2024, the global growth rate declined to 0.0%, suggesting a potential shift towards a more stable or slower growth phase. The most likely scenario for the global corn area is an optimistic outlook with a 37% likelihood of steady growth. China’s most likely scenario is a gradual expansion with a rate of 2.0%. The United States’ most likely scenario suggests a neutral trend. Brazil has remarkable growth trajectories in its areas, reflecting land availability. Ukraine’s area by 2030 is projected to experience varying outcomes due to uncertainties in the agricultural landscape.

Keywords

ARIMA modelAkaike’s information criterioncorn area forecastZea mays L.
Type
Crops and Soils Research Paper
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Accepted manuscript , pp. 1 - 30
Copyright
The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press

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