Hostname: page-component-5f56664f6-x5np6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-05-07T07:57:29.646Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Uncertainty, Shifting Power, and Appeasement

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Robert Powell
Robert Powell*
Affiliation:
University of California, Berkeley
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Great Britain faced an immensely complicated strategic problem in the 1930s, and important aspects of it can be stylized as a situation in which a state that is declining in power is unsure of the aims of a rising state. If those aims are limited, then the declining state prefers to appease the rising state's demands rather than go to war to oppose them. If, however, the rising state's demands are unlimited, then the declining state prefers fighting. And, given that the declining state is becoming weaker over time, it prefers fighting sooner rather than later if there is to be a war. This situation creates a trade-off: The earlier a state stands firm, the stronger it will be if war ensues, but the higher the chance of fighting an unnecessary war. In equilibrium, the declining state generally tries to appease the rising state by making a series of concessions.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 90 , Issue 4 , December 1996 , pp. 749 - 764
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1996 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

REFERENCES

Aster, Sidney. 1989. “ ‘Guilty Men’: The Case of Neville Chamberlain.” In Paths to War, ed. Boyce, Robert and Robertson, Esmonde. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Bagnoli, Mark, and Bergstrom, Theodore. 1989. “Log-Concavity Probability and Its Applications.” Department of Economics, University of Michigan. Typescript.Google Scholar
Bergstrom, Theodore, and Bagnoli, Mark. 1993. “Courtship as a Waiting Game.” Journal of Political Economy 101 (02): 185–202.Google Scholar
Barnett, Correlli. 1972. The Collapse of British Power. New York: Morrow.Google Scholar
Bond, Brian. 1980. British Military Policy between the Wars. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Boyce, Robert, and Robertson, Esmonde, eds. 1989. Paths to War. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Lalman, David. 1992. War and Reason. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dilks, David. 1981. Retreat from Power. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1993. “Ethnic Conflict as a Commitment Problem.” Department of Political Science, University of Chicago. Typescript.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1994. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88 (09):577–92.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 39 (Summer):379–414.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1996. “Bargaining over Objects that Influence Future Bargaining Power.” Department of Political Science, University of Chicago. Typescript.Google Scholar
Fudenberg, Drew, Gilbert, Richard, Stiglitz, Joseph, and Tirole, Jean. 1983. “Preemption, Leapfrogging, and Competition in Patent Races.” European Economic Review 22 (06):3–31.Google Scholar
Fudenberg, Drew, and Tirole, Jean. 1986. “A Theory of Exit in Duopoly.” Econometrica 54 (07):943–60.Google Scholar
Fudenberg, Drew, and Tirole, Jean. 1991. Game Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Ghemawat, Pankaj, and Nalebuff, Barry. 1985. “Exit.” Rand Journal of Economics 16 (Summer):184–94.Google Scholar
Gilbert, Martin. 1966. The Roots of Appeasement. London: Nicolson.Google Scholar
Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Howard, Michael. 1972. The Continental Commitment. London: Temple Smith.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1977. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kennedy, Paul. 1976. “The Tradition of Appeasement in British Foreign Policy, 1865–1939.” British Journal of International Studies 2 (10):195–215.Google Scholar
Kennedy, Paul. 1978. “‘Appeasement’ and British Defense Policy in the Inter-war Years.” British Journal of International Studies 4 (07):161–77.Google Scholar
Kennedy, Paul. 1983. Strategy and Diplomacy, 1870–1945. London: Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Kennedy, Paul. 1992. “British ‘Net Assessment’ and the Coming of the Second World War.” In Calculations, ed. Murray, Williamson and Millet, Allan. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Kim, Woosang, and Morrow, James. 1992. “When Do Power Shifts Lead to War?” American Journal of Political Science 36 (11): 896–922.Google Scholar
Kugler, Jacek, and Lemke, David. 1996. Parity and War. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Kydd, Andrew. 1993. “The Security Dilemma, Game Theory, and World War I.” Paper presented to the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C. Google Scholar
Middlemas, Keith. 1972. The Diplomacy of Illusion. London: Wiedenfeld and Nicolson.Google Scholar
Mommsen, Wolfgang, and Kettenacker, Lothar. 1983. The Facist Challenge and the Policy of Appeasement. London: Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Morrow, James. 1989. “Capabilities, Uncertainty, and Resolve.” American Journal of Political Science 33 (11):941–72.Google Scholar
Murray, Williamson. 1979. “Munich 1938: The Military Confrontation.” Journal of Strategic Studies 2 (12):282–302.Google Scholar
Murray, Williamson. 1984. The Change in the European Balance of Power, 1938–39. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Nalebuff, Barry. 1986. “Brinkmanship and Nuclear Deterrence.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 9 (Spring):19–30.Google Scholar
Organski, A. F. K. 1968. World Politics, 2d ed. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Organski, A. F. K., and Kugler, Jacek. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Parker, R. A. C. 1993. Chamberlain and Appeasement. New York: St. Martin's.Google Scholar
Peden, George. 1979. British Rearmament and the Treasury, 1932–39. Edinburgh: Scottish Academic Press.Google Scholar
Post, Gaines. 1993. Dilemmas of Appeasement. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1987. “Crisis Bargaining, Escalation, and MAD.” American Political Science Review 81 (09):717–35.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1988. “Nuclear Brinkmanship with Two-Sided Incomplete Information.” American Political Science Review 82 (03): 155–78.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1989. “Nuclear Deterrence Theory and the Strategy of Limited Retaliation.” American Political Science Review 83 (06): 503–19.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1990. Nuclear Deterrence Theory: The Search for Credibility. Cambridge: the University Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. N.d. “Bargaining in the Shadow of Power.” Games and Economic Behavior. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1996. “Stability and the Distribution of Power.” World Politics, 48 (01):239–67.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Rudin, Walter. 1964. Principles of Mathematical Analysis. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Taylor, A. J. P. 1962. The Origins of the Second World War. New York: Antheneum.Google Scholar
Taylor, Telford. 1979. Munich: The Price of Peace. Garden City, NY: Doubleday.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.