Hostname: page-component-55f67697df-2z2hb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-05-10T05:54:28.589Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Economic and Referendum Voting: A Comparison of Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

Lonna Rae Atkeson  and
Randall W. Partin
Lonna Rae Atkeson
Affiliation:
University of New Mexico
Randall W. Partin
Affiliation:
University of Colorado
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We compare vote choice in senate and gubernatorial elections from 1986 and 1990 with two retrospective voting hypotheses: the national referendum hypothesis and an economic retrospective hypothesis. Despite the similarities between the office of U.S. senator and governor (same constituency, high levels of campaign spending, highly visible candidates, etc.), we find that different types of retrospective evaluations are used with respect to vote choice. As members of the national legislative branch, senators' fortunes are linked to the success or failures of the president. In contrast, governors, as state executives, are held accountable for perceived state economic conditions, while senators escape unscathed from the same general economic evaluations. These findings shed some light on the nature of vote choice in a political system complicated by federalism and separation of powers.

Type
Research Notes
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 89 , Issue 1 , March 1995 , pp. 99 - 107
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1995

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 1989. “Campaign Spending in the U.S. Senate Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 14:487.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramowitz, Alan I., and Segal, Jeffrey. 1986. “Determinants of the Outcomes of Senate Elections.” Journal of Politics 48:433–40.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Rosenthal, Howard. 1989. “Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy.” American Political Science Review 83:373–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Born, Richard. 1986. “Strategic Politicians and Unresponsive Voters.” American Political Science Review 80:599–612.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brace, Paul. 1991. “The Changing Context of State Political Economy.” Journal of Politics 53:297–317.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus E., Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Chubb, John E. 1988. “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections.” American Political Science Review 82:133–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, M. K. 1986. Revitalizing State Economies: A Review of State Economic Development Policies and Programs. Washington: National Governor's Association Press.Google Scholar
Elkin, Stephen. 1984. “Twentieth Century Urban Regimes.” Journal of Urban Affairs 8:11–28.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 1990. “Economic Conditions and the Congressional Vote: A Review of the Macrolevel Evidence.” American Journal of Political Science 34:373–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1978. “Economic Retrospective Voting in American Elections: Micro-analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 27:426–43.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Friedland, Roger, Piven, Frances Fox, and Alford, Robert. 1977. “Political Conflict, Urban Structure and the Fiscal Crisis.” In Campaigning for Public Policy, ed. Ashford, Douglas. Beverly Hüls: Sage.Google Scholar
Grady, Dennis. 1991. “Managing the State Economy: The Governor's Role in Policymaking.” In Gubernatorial Leadership and State Policy, ed. Herzik, Eric B. and Brown, Brent W.. Westport: Greenwood.Google Scholar
Hendrick, Rebecca M., and Garand, James C.. 1991. “Variation in State Economic Growth: Decomposing State, Regional, and National Effects.” Journal of Politics 53:1091–1110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbing, John R., and Alford, John R.. 1981. “The Electoral Impact of Economic Conditions: Who Is Held Responsible?” American Journal of Political Science 25:423–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hinckley, Barbara, Hofstetter, Richard, and Kessel, John. 1974. “Information and the Vote: A Comparative Election Study.” American Politics Quarterly 2:131–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hosmer, David W. Jr., and Lemeshow, Stanley. 1989. Applied Logistic Regression. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Howell, Susan E., and Vanderleeuw, James M.. 1990. “Economic Effects on State Governors.” American Politics Quarterly 15:471–83.Google Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C., and Kernell, Samuel. 1983. Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Kernell, Samuel. 1977. “Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting.” American Political Science Review 71:44–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Key, V. O. 1966. The Responsible Electorate. New York: Vintage.Google Scholar
Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1981. “Policy Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues.” American Political Science Review 75:448–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Kinder, Donald R., and Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1978. “Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgements in Congressional Voting.” American Journal of Political Science 23:495–527.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kinder, Donald R., and Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1981. “Sociotro-pic Politics: The American Case.” British Journal of Political Science 11:125–61.Google Scholar
Kirschten, Dick. 1990. “Targets of Discontent.” National Journal, 10 November 1990, pp. 2736–42.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Rice, Thomas. 1984. “Forecasting U.S. House Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 9:475–86.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Rice, Thomas. 1985. “Are Senate Election Outcomes Predictable?” PS 18:745–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marra, Robin F., and Ostrom, Charles W. Jr., 1989. “Explaining Seat Change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1950–1986.” American Journal of Political Science 33:541–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mollenkopf, John. 1983. The Contested City. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Peffley, Mark. 1985. “The Voter as Juror: Attributing Responsibility for Economic Conditions.” In Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes, ed. Eulau, Heinz and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. New York: Agathon.Google Scholar
Peterson, Paul. 1981. City Limits. Chicago: Chicago University Press.Google Scholar
Piereson, James E. 1975. “Presidential Popularity and Midterm Voting at Different Electoral Levels.” American Journal of Political Science 19:683–94.Google Scholar
Seroka, Jim. 1980. “Incumbency and Reelection: Governors Versus U.S. Senators.” State Government 52:161–65.Google Scholar
Simon, Dennis M. 1989. “Presidents, Governors, and Electoral Accountability.” Journal of Politics 51:286–304.Google Scholar
Simon, Dennis M., Ostrom, Charles W. Jr., and Marra, Robin F.. 1991. “The President, Referendum Voting, and Subnational Elections in the United States.” American Political Science Review 85:1177–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill, and Fastnow, Christina. 1994. “Comparing Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 47:705–720.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, Robert M. 1990. “Economic Voting for Governor and U.S. Senator: The Electoral Consequences of Federalism.” Journal of Politics 52:29–53.Google Scholar
Tidmarch, Charles M., Hyman, Lisa J., Sorkin, Jill E.. 1984. “Press Issue Agendas in the 1982 Congressional and Gubernatorial Election Campaigns.” Journal of Politics 46:1226–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tompkins, Mark E. 1988. “Have Gubernatorial Elections Become More Distinctive Contests?” Journal of Politics 50: 192–205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. 1975. “Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 69:812–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Uslaner, Eric M., and Conway, M. Margaret. 1985. “The Responsive Congressional Electorate: Watergate, the Economy, and Vote Choice in 1974.” American Political Science Review 79:788–803.Google Scholar
Weatherford, M. Stephen. 1978. “Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes: Class Differences in the Political Response to Recession.” American Journal of Political Science 22:917–38.Google Scholar
Westlye, Mark C. 1983. “Competitiveness of Senate Seats and Voting Behavior in Senate Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 27:253–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wildes, Jeffrey W. 1976. “Self-perceived Change and Political Orientations: A Preliminary Exploration.” American Politics Quarterly 4:395–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, Gerald C. Jr., 1974. Electoral Choice in America. Chapel Hill, NC: Institute for Research in Social Science.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.