A reasonably general but greatly simplified model for a finite sexually reproducing population is considered. We restrict ourselves to the case where there are distinct, non-overlapping generations, but there is hope that the techniques will also be applicable to some very simple minded continuous time models with overlapping generations (see also Section 5, Example 3). There are t∞ < ∞ different types of females and t1 < ∞ types of males and our main concern is the asymptotic behavior of the variables and

Our aim here is to give a survey of that part of continuous-time fluctuation theory which can be approached in terms of functionals of Lévy processes, our principal tools being Wiener-Hopf factorisation and local-time theory. Particular emphasis is given to one- and two-sided exit problems for spectrally negative and spectrally positive processes, and their applications to queues and dams. In addition, we give some weak-convergence theorems of heavy-traffic type, and some tail-estimates involving regular variation.

The asymptotic statistical distribution of tensile strength of a bundle of parallel fibers is determined in terms of the statistical characteristics of the individual fibers as the number of fibers in the bundle grows indefinitely large.

We consider the problem of tracking a Brownian motion by a process of bounded variation, in such a way as to minimize total expected cost of both ‘action' and ‘deviation from a target state 0'. The former is proportional to the amount of control exerted to date, while the latter is being measured by a function which can be viewed, for simplicity, as quadratic. We discuss the discounted, stationary and finite-horizon variants of the problem. The answer to all three questions takes the form of exerting control in a singular manner, in order not to exit from a certain region. Explicit solutions are found for the first and second questions, while the third is reduced to an appropriate optimal stopping problem. This reduction yields properties, as well as global upper and lower bounds, for the associated moving boundary. The pertinent Abelian and ergodic relationships for the corresponding value functions are also derived.

We study a classical stochastic control problem arising in financial economics: to maximize expected logarithmic utility from terminal wealth and/or consumption. The novel feature of our work is that the portfolio is allowed to anticipate the future, i.e. the terminal values of the prices, or of the driving Brownian motion, are known to the investor, either exactly or with some uncertainty. Results on the finiteness of the value of the control problem are obtained in various setups, using techniques from the so-called enlargement of filtrations. When the value of the problem is finite, we compute it explicitly and exhibit an optimal portfolio in closed form.

We develop some approaches to the characterization of distributions of real-valued random variables, useful in practical applications, in terms of conditional expectations and hazard measures. We prove several representation theorems generalizing earlier results, and establish stability theorems for two general characteristics introduced in this paper.

One inherent weakness of traditional reliability theory is that the system and the components are always described just as functioning or failed. However, recent papers by Barlow and Wu (1978) and El-Neweihi et al. (1978) have made significant contributions to start building up a theory for a multistate system of multistate components. Here the states represent successive levels of performance ranging from a perfect functioning level down to a complete failure level. In the present paper we will give two suggestions of how to define a multistate coherent system. The first one is more general than the one introduced in the latter paper, the results of which are, however, extendable. (This is also true for a somewhat more general model than ours, treated in independent work by Griffith (1980).) Furthermore, some new definitions and results are given (which trivially extend to the latter model). Our second model is similarly more general than the one introduced in Barlow and Wu (1978), the results of which are again extendable. In fact we believe that most of the theory for the traditional binary coherent system can be extended to our second suggestion of a multistate coherent system.

Motivated by a problem in PERT networks we consider the question of construction of random variables with maximum sums when the marginals are fixed.

When analyzing the equilibrium behavior of M/G/1 type Markov chains by transform methods, restrictive hypotheses are often made to avoid technical problems that arise in applying results from complex analysis and linear algebra. It is shown that such restrictive assumptions are unnecessary, and an analysis of these chains using generating functions is given under only the natural hypotheses that first moments (or second moments in the null recurrent case) exist. The key to the analysis is the identification of an important subspace of the space of bounded solutions of the system of homogeneous vector-valued Wiener–Hopf equations associated with the chain. In particular, the linear equations in the boundary probabilities obtained from the transform method are shown to correspond to a spectral basis of the shift operator on this subspace. Necessary and sufficient conditions under which the chain is ergodic, null recurrent or transient are derived in terms of properties of the matrix-valued generating functions determined by transitions of the Markov chain. In the transient case, the Martin exit boundary is identified and shown to be associated with certain eigenvalues and vectors of one of these generating functions. An equilibrium analysis of the class of G/M/1 type Markov chains by similar methods is also presented.

The quasi-stationary distribution of the closed stochastic SIS model changes drastically as the basic reproduction ratio R0 passes the deterministic threshold value 1. Approximations are derived that describe these changes. The quasi-stationary distribution is approximated by a geometric distribution (discrete!) for R0 distinctly below 1 and by a normal distribution (continuous!) for R0 distinctly above 1. Uniformity of the approximation with respect to R0 allows one to study the transition between these two extreme distributions. We also study the time to extinction and the invasion and persistence thresholds of the model.

A batch service queue is considered where each batch size and its time of service is subject to control. Costs are incurred for serving the customers and for holding them in the system. Viewing the system as a Markov decision process (i.e., dynamic program) with unbounded costs, we show that policies which minimize the expected continuously discounted cost and the expected cost per unit time over an infinite time horizon are of the form: at a review point when x customers are waiting, serve min {x, Q} customers (Q being the, possibly infinite, service capacity) if and only if x exceeds a certain optimal level M. Methods of computing M for both the discounted and average cost contexts are presented.

Several notions of stochastic convexity and concavity and their properties are studied in this paper. Efficient sample path approaches are developed in order to verify the occurrence of these notions in various applications. Numerous examples are given. The use of these notions in several areas of probability and statistics is demonstrated. In queueing theory, the convexity (as a function of c) of the steady-state waiting time in a GI/D/c queue, and (as a function of the arrival or service rates) in a GI/G/1 queue, is established. Also the convexity of the queue length in the M/M/c case (as a function of the arrival rate) is shown, thus strengthening previous results while simplifying their derivation. In reliability theory, the convexity of the payoff in the success rate of an imperfect repair is obtained and used to find an optimal repair probability. Also the convexity of the damage as a function of time in a cumulative damage shock model is shown. In branching processes, the convexity of the population size as a function of a parameter of the offspring distribution is proved. In non-parametric statistics, the stochastic concavity (or convexity) of the empirical distribution function is established. And, for applications in the theory of probability inequalities, we identify several families of distributions which are convexly parametrized.

Some obscure, yet fundamental, formulae of integral geometry are re-considered. They are applied to determine all the moments of the random volume of various isotropic random r-dimensional simplices in En (r = 1, …, n).

We consider Markov models for growth of populations subject to catastrophes. Emphasis is placed on discrete-state models where immigration is possible and the catastrophe rate is population-dependent. Explicit formulas for descriptive quantities of interest are derived when catastrophes reduce population size by a random amount which is either geometrically, binomially or uniformly distributed. Comparison is made with continuous-state Markov models in the literature in which population size evolves continuously and deterministically upwards between random jumps downward.

We provide a unified probabilistic approach to the distribution of total size and total area under the trajectory of infectives for a general stochastic epidemic with any specified distribution of the infectious period. The key tool is a Wald&s identity for the epidemic process. The generalisation of our results to epidemics spreading amongst a heterogeneous population is straightforward.

Consider a continuous-time renewal risk model with a constant force of interest. We assume that claim sizes and interarrival times correspondingly form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random pairs and that each pair obeys a dependence structure described via the conditional tail probability of a claim size given the interarrival time before the claim. We focus on determining the impact of this dependence structure on the asymptotic tail probability of discounted aggregate claims. Assuming that the claim size distribution is subexponential, we derive an exact locally uniform asymptotic formula, which quantitatively captures the impact of the dependence structure. When the claim size distribution is extended regularly varying tailed, we show that this asymptotic formula is globally uniform.

This paper investigates the finite- and infinite-time ruin probabilities in a discrete-time stochastic economic environment. Under the assumption that the insurance risk - the total net loss within one time period - is extended-regularly-varying or rapidly-varying tailed, various precise estimates for the ruin probabilities are derived. In particular, some estimates obtained are uniform with respect to the time horizon, and so apply in the case of infinite-time ruin.

A random spatial series is a collection of random variables F(xi, · · ·, xn) depending on several spatial coordinates (x1, · · ·, xn). An attempt is made to construct a statistical second-order theory of such series when (x1, · · ·, xn) varies over a regular cartesian lattice. Using the properties of the linear (Hilbert) space associated with the series, the concepts of innovation and purely non-deterministic (p.n.d.) series are introduced. For a p.n.d. series F(x1, · · ·, xn) a unilateral representation is obtained in terms of a white innovations series Z(y1, · · ·, yn) where The representatation is specialized to the homogeneous case and we discuss spectral conditions for p.n.d. The familiar time-series condition ∫ log f(λ) dλ > –∞ on the spectral density f is necessary but not sufficient. A sufficient condition is stated. Motivated by the p.n.d. unilateral representation results we define unilateral arma (autoregressive-moving average) spatial series models. Stability and invertibility conditions are formulated in terms of the location of zero sets of polynomials relative to the unit polydisc in Cn, and a rigorous shift operator formalism is established. For autoregressive spatial series a Yule–Walker-type matrix equation is formulated and it is shown how this can be used to obtain estimates of the autoregressive parameters. It is demonstrated that under mild conditions the estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal.

In this paper we investigate the application of perfect simulation, in particular Coupling from the Past (CFTP), to the simulation of random point processes. We give a general formulation of the method of dominated CFTP and apply it to the problem of perfect simulation of general locally stable point processes as equilibrium distributions of spatial birth-and-death processes. We then investigate discrete-time Metropolis-Hastings samplers for point processes, and show how a variant which samples systematically from cells can be converted into a perfect version. An application is given to the Strauss point process.

We introduce a new point process, the dynamic contagion process, by generalising the Hawkes process and the Cox process with shot noise intensity. Our process includes both self-excited and externally excited jumps, which could be used to model the dynamic contagion impact from endogenous and exogenous factors of the underlying system. We have systematically analysed the theoretical distributional properties of this new process, based on the piecewise-deterministic Markov process theory developed in Davis (1984), and the extension of the martingale methodology used in Dassios and Jang (2003). The analytic expressions of the Laplace transform of the intensity process and the probability generating function of the point process have been derived. An explicit example of specified jumps with exponential distributions is also given. The object of this study is to produce a general mathematical framework for modelling the dependence structure of arriving events with dynamic contagion, which has the potential to be applicable to a variety of problems in economics, finance, and insurance. We provide an application of this process to credit risk, and a simulation algorithm for further industrial implementation and statistical analysis.