¹ That treaty, as summarized by Australia, “will allow Australian police, defence and associated civilian personnel to deploy rapidly to Solomon Islands if the need arises and where both countries consent. It will cover a range of foreseeable security threats, including natural disasters, and will allow for third country contributions.” Government of Australia, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, “Bilateral Treaty.”

² For background, see Yan Zhuang, “Protests Rock Solomon Islands: Here's What's Behind the Unrest,” New York Times, November 25, 2021 (hereafter, NYT).

³ Though most of the bribery accusations concern Beijing, at least one concerns Taiwan. See Edward Cavanough, “China and Taiwan Offered Us Huge Bribes, Say Solomon Islands MPs,” The Guardian, December 7, 2019. Peter Dutton, Australia's defense minister under the previous Scott Morrison government, also accused China of bribing the Solomon Islands government to obtain the security deal. Peter Coorey and Andrew Tillett, “Dutton Suggests Bribes Swayed Solomons in China Pact,” Financial Review, April 21, 2022.

⁴ Patricia M. Kim, “Does the China-Solomon Islands Security Pact Portend a More Interventionist Beijing?” Brookings Institution, May 6, 2022; Yan Zhuang, “Solomon Islands' Leader Calls Concern Over Security Deal with China ‘Insulting,‘” NYT, March 29, 2022.

⁵ The prime minister denied the deal would mean a Chinese base and said the criticism was demeaning. Zhuang, “Solomon Islands' Leader Calls Concern over Chinese Security Deal ‘Insulting.‘”

⁶ “PM Wants Permanent Policing Arrangement to Deal with Uprisings,” The Island Sun, July 7, 2022; “Chinese Communist Party Donates Police Equipment to Solomon Islands,” July 6, 2022.

⁷ “Shock China Security Deal Shows Pacific Powers Need to Face Facts,” Sydney Morning Herald, March 25, 2022.

⁸ Anne-Marie Brady, “How China Is Using Humanitarian Aid to Gain a Foothold in the South Pacific,” Sydney Morning Herald, February 9, 2022.

⁹ Craig Singleton, “Beijing Eyes New Military Bases Across the Indo-Pacific,” Foreign Policy, July 7, 2021; Alexander B. Gray, “The Pacific Shouldn't be a ‘Strategic Surprise,‘” Foreign Policy, January 25, 2022.

¹⁰ Alexander B. Gray, “Beijing Eyes Pacific Islands, Exploiting US Strategic Vacuum,” Foreign Policy, June 21, 2022.

¹¹ China's military buildup on three islets that it claims in the South China Sea so far, according to US military sources, includes completed infrastructure for anti-ship and antiaircraft missiles, radar, and laser jamming equipment as well as jet fighter runways and ports. Associated Press, “China Has Fully Militarized Three Islands in the South China Sea, US Admiral Says,” The Guardian, March 20, 2022.

¹² Reports now suggest that China may have acquired basing rights in Cambodia that would allow Chinese soldiers to occupy a portion of a Cambodian base they are upgrading. The Cambodians deny this report.

¹³ “They would assemble a staggering 238 ships, 170 aircraft, 4 submarines and 25,000 military personnel from 26 countries,” McCormack writes, among them India, Indonesia, and Tonga. Gavan McCormack, “Global Agendas 2022: NATO and RIMPAC,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, July 1, 2022.

¹⁴ Congressional Research Service, U.S. Ground Forces in the Indo-Pacific: Background and Issues for Congress, May 6, 2022.

¹⁵ Jon Harper, “Eagles vs. Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese Navies Stack Up,” March 9, 2020.

¹⁶ Lara Seligman, “Pentagon Considering Permanent Naval Task Force to Counter China in Pacific,” Politico, June 15, 2022.

¹⁷ Centre for Air Power Studies (New Delhi), “Positioning Japan-NATO Cooperation,” July 13, 2022.

¹⁸ General Mark Milley's visit in July 2022 was the first by a high-ranking U.S. military officer since 2008. Colm Quinn, “Xi Jinping Welcomes a Rare Visitor in Indonesia's President,” Foreign Policy, July 26, 2022.

¹⁹ The White House, “Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States,” February 11, 2022.

²⁰ Damien Cave, “China Seeks Sweeping Regional Deal with Pacific Island Countries,” NYT, May 25, 2022; Reuters, “China is Pursuing a Pacific-wide Pact with 10 Island Nations on Security, Policing and Data—Report,” The Guardian, May 25, 2022.

²¹ Kate Lyons, “China's Foreign Minister Tells Pacific Leaders, ‘Don't be Too Anxious’ After They Reject Regional Security Pact,” The Guardian, May 30, 2022.

²² At this writing, Papua New Guinea was undergoing election-time political violence. The cause is under investigation, but thousands of people have been displaced and “dozens” have been killed. Lyanne Togiba, “Dozens Killed and Thousands Displaced in Election Fighting in Papua New Guinea, UN Says,” The Guardian, July 22, 2022.

²³ At least a few strategic analysts, such as Alexander Gray cited earlier (“Beijing Eyes Pacific Islands”), recognize that geopolitics cannot entirely account for the Pacific Island situation, and that environmental and social concerns—“issues like illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing; rising sea levels; soil erosion; wildlife trafficking; and the impact of severe weather events”—and development needs in areas such as health care and education are also very important.

²⁴ A Chinese deal with East Timor following on Wang Yi's visit points in that direction. China's aid package included healthcare, digitizing East Timor's national radio and television services, and adding to already substantial investments in port and construction facilities. “Beijing Targets East Timor, Four Deals Set to be Signed,” Sydney Morning Herald, June 3, 2022.

²⁵ Hilary Whiteman, “The US Steps Up Its Game as China Circles the Pacific,” CNN, July 12, 2022.

²⁶ Rebecca Starting and Joanne Wallis, “Strategic Competition in Oceania,” in Ashley J. Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, and Michael Wills, eds., Navigating Tumultuous Times in the Indo-Pacific (Seattle, WA: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2022).

²⁷ Kiribati's decision probably was taken to show solidarity with China. “Pacific Islands Forum 2022: US Makes Push Into Forum as China Barred,” New Zealand Herald, July 17, 2022; “Smiles and Unity at the Pacific Island Forum Mask Tough Questions Shelves for Another Day,” The Guardian, July 15, 2022.

²⁸ Dorothy Wickham, “Can You Blame Poor Countries Like Mine for Turning to China?” NYT, June 27, 2022.